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Knowledge Content Library

Exploratory Decision Analysis of the Future of the Automobile in the USA
Presented by Max Henrion (Lumina Decision Systems) with Xirong Jiang and Surya Swamy at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Example of modeling used to explore the future of the automobile in the US.

Using Decision Analysis to Select Communications Research Projects
Presented by Hal Wilson (National Security Agency) and Don Buckshaw (Innovative Decisions) at 2010 DAAG Conference in Orlando. Portfolio analysis example in DoD discussing how to mix hard skills (multi-objective models) with soft skills (negotiations and gaining customer buy-in).

Making Trade Space: Value Models and Enterprise Capability Analysis for the U.S. Intelligence Community
Presented by Freeman Marvin (Innovative Decisions) at 2010 DAAG Conference in Orlando. Application of decision analysis methods to improving US Intelligence Community enterprise capability analysis during the first five years of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

The Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) Proposal Value Model
Presented by Jeff Weir, Ken Bauer, Shane Knighton (Air Force) at 2009 DAAG Conference in Indianapolis. Multi-criteria decision analytic methods applied to selection of methods to defeat improvised explosive devices.

Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: Defender-Attacker-Defender Probabilistic Risk Analysis Models
Presented by Greg Parnell (Innovative Decisions) with Chris Smith and Fred Moxley (US Military Academy) at 2009 DAAG Conference in Indianapolis. Description of fundamental structure of intelligent adversary risk analysis using probabilistic risk analysis and demonstration that decision trees can model the defender-attacker-defender structure.

Using Decision Analysis to Select Strategic Partners
Presented by Hal Wilson (Department of Defense) at 2009 DAAG Conference in Indianapolis. Example of multi-objective decision analysis applied to selecting the best foreign partners to help fulfill a capability gap, accounting for the benefit of establishing a partnership and the risk of losing capabilities.

Prioritizing Terrorism Vulnerability Analyses for Critical Infrastructure Sectors
Presented by Don N. Kleinmuntz (Strata Decision Technology) and Henry Willis (RAND) at 2009 DAAG Conference in Indianapolis. Portfolio and risk assessment methods applied to prioritizing infrastructure sectors by vulnerability to terrorism.

Using Decision Analysis with the Operational Air Force
Presented by Stephen Chambal and Jeffrey Cochran (Air Force) at 2009 DAAG Conference in Indianapolis. Several examples of how Value Focused Thinking is used within the Air Force and other Department of Defense entities.

Staying Relevant and Creating Enduring Value
Presented by Greg Parnell (Innovative Decisions) at 2006 DAAG Conference in Baltimore. Keynote address on the top 10 ways to maintain relevance and provide enduring value to your organization.

How to Convince a Large DoD Agency to Use Decision Analysis for Budgeting
Presented by David Caswell, William Hensley, Greg Parnell, Bill Klimack, Donald Buckshaw (Innovative Decisions) at 2006 DAAG Conference in Baltimore. Discussion of the use of multi-objective methods applied to complex defense budgeting problems.

A Structured Process for Developing a Performance Confirmation Plan for the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Repository
Presented by Tim Nieman (Geomatrix Consultants) at 2003 DAAG Conference in Houston. This talk discusses the use of multi-criteria concepts to develop a portfolio of performance confirmation activities.

Discounting Effectiveness
Presented by James Felli and Kent Wall (Naval Postgraduate School) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Examples of using discounting and tradeoffs for a class of decision problems with multiyear profiles, importance of timeliness, and changing effectiveness.

Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternatives
Presented by James Felli (Naval Postgraduate School) at 2000 DAAG Conference in Calgary. Discussion of cost and effectiveness as a problem of trade-offs.

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
by Philip E. Tetlock
Explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
continue to: amazon.com

The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
by Jonathan Haidt
As America descends deeper into polarization and paralysis, social psychologist Jonathan Haidt has done the seemingly impossible—challenged conventional thinking about morality, politics, and religion in a way that speaks to everyone on the political spectrum.
continue to: amazon.com

Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices
by Robin Gregory, Lee Failing, Michael Harstone, Graham Long, Tim McDaniels, Dan Ohlson
Short introductory guide to this form of decision making aimed at environmental managers and scientists.
continue to: amazon.com

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