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Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: Defender-Attacker-Defender Probabilistic Risk Analysis Models
Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: Defender-Attacker-Defender Probabilistic Risk Analysis Models
Presenter: Greg Parnell, Innovative Decisions with Chris Smith and Fred Moxley, US Military Academy at West Point
Presented at the 2009 DAAG Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana. Session 3 - Portfolio Decision Making: Successes and Challenges.
This session focused on successes and challenges in using analytic frameworks for decision making among those who practice portfolio review and optimization. Which decision analysis techniques were found useful in conducting enterprise portfolio reviews? How do you gain support and what makes portfolio-level analysis successful?
Description of fundamental structure of intelligent adversary risk analysis using probabilistic risk analysis and demonstration that decision trees can model the defender-attacker-defender structure. Keywords: military, government, risk analysis riskanal, risk management riskmgmt, decision tree dectree, uncertainty analysis uncanal, modeling modtree, probabilty assessment probass, tornado chart torncht, benefit-risk, evaluation anamod
