The following books have been vetted by SDP as meeting our standard for the profession. We have grouped them into four categories depending on the level of depth, as follows:
General / Popular
High level easy read books intended for the general public. If you are new to the profession, start with these.
Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work by Chip Heath and Dan Heath
In "Decisive," the Heath brothers present a four-step process (WRAP) to help individuals and organizations make better decisions. The book addresses common cognitive biases and decision traps, offering practical strategies to improve decision-making in everyday life and work.
How We Decide by Jonah Lehrer
Lehrer examines the neuroscience behind decision-making, explaining how different brain parts contribute to both rational and emotional decisions, with real-world examples to improve complex choices.
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein
"Noise" examines the often-overlooked variability in human judgment caused by inconsistent decision-making, or "noise." The authors explore noise vs. bias and strategies for reducing it to improve decision quality in various fields.
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
Ariely explores irrational behaviors influencing decision-making, drawing on behavioral economics and psychology to explain how hidden forces shape choices, offering insights on recognizing these forces to make better decisions.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock
Tetlock explores the methods and cognitive habits of “superforecasters” who can consistently predict future events, offering techniques that anyone can use to improve predictive abilities.
The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver
Silver discusses prediction, distinguishing between useful signals and irrelevant noise, and explores ways to improve forecasting in various fields through probabilistic thinking.
The Theory That Would Not Die by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
McGrayne tells the story of Bayes' Rule, a statistical theorem shaping fields like cryptography and machine learning, highlighting its enduring impact on decision-making.
The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki
Surowiecki examines collective intelligence, showing how groups often make better decisions than individuals, especially under conditions favoring diversity and decentralization.
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Kahneman presents insights into human thinking, describing two systems (fast, intuitive, and slow, analytical) that drive decisions, with strategies to improve decision-making by managing biases.
Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
Duke uses betting as a metaphor for decision-making, advocating probabilistic thinking to navigate uncertainty and make smarter choices under incomplete information.
Professional/ Managerial
Book intended for a general audience that wants to go into depth on the topic.
"Chancification" by Sam L. Savage
"Chancification" focuses on understanding and managing uncertainty in decision-making. Savage introduces tools for quantifying risk and emphasizes embracing uncertainty as a key to better decisions.
"Decision Quality" by Carl Spetzler, Jennifer Meyer, and Hannah Winter
This book details the Decision Quality (DQ) framework for enhancing business decisions, covering essentials like framing and embracing uncertainty for optimal outcomes.
"Decision Superhero" by Eric Torkia and Bill Klimack
Decision Superhero is a modern practical guide to making better decisions using probability. Understand essential psychological and mathematical models for effective decision-making, implement decision science models in Excel, and build an organization that tests assumptions, discerns variables, and predicts outcomes using decision models.
"Decision Traps" by J. Edward Russo and Paul J. H. Schoemaker
This book identifies and offers ways to overcome ten common decision-making traps like overconfidence and confirmation bias, enhancing decision-making quality.
"The Smart Organization" by David Matheson and Jim Matheson
The authors discuss fostering innovation through a decision-making framework that aligns with organizational strategies for enhanced competitiveness.
"Real Options" by Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
This book explores the concept of "real options" to value strategic investments amid uncertainty, combining finance and strategic management.
"Winning Decisions" by J. Edward Russo and Paul J. H. Schoemaker
Focusing on cognitive biases in decision-making, this book offers strategies for avoiding common pitfalls, enhancing both personal and professional choices.
Technical/ Educational
Books for people who want to learn the mechanics of the tools and methods used in the profession and build their skill base.
"Decision Analysis for the Professional" by Peter McNamee and John Celona
This guide outlines techniques like influence diagrams and risk modeling to help professionals make quality decisions, illustrated through real-world cases.
"Ethical Decision Quality" by Ali E. Abbas
This book integrates decision analysis with ethical reasoning to create a framework for resolving complex moral dilemmas. It introduces the concept of "Ethical Decision Quality" (EDQ), focusing on clarifying values, managing uncertainty, and balancing competing objectives. With practical tools and case studies, it provides a systematic approach to making ethical decisions in professional and uncertain environments, ideal for leaders and analysts.
"Ethics for the Real World" by Ronald A. Howard and Clint Korver
This book guides readers in creating a personal ethical code to navigate real-world dilemmas in work and life. It emphasizes self-reflection, consistency, and integrity, offering practical strategies to avoid ethical pitfalls like rationalization and peer pressure. Using relatable examples, it demonstrates how a values-based framework can support ethical decision-making in everyday situations.
"Give Yourself a Nudge" by Ralph L. Keeney
Keeney uses nudge theory to guide better decisions in areas like health and career, offering a framework for positive life choices without limiting freedom.
"Introduction to Decision Analysis" by David C. Skinner
This beginner’s guide covers essential decision analysis tools like decision trees and risk assessment, providing a solid foundation for understanding uncertainty.
"Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis" by Robert T. Clemen
This classic text explores structured decision-making through topics like decision trees and risk analysis, practical for various complex contexts.
"Managerial Decision Analysis" by Danny Samson
This guide on decision analysis for managers includes topics like risk assessment and optimization to improve decision-making in business environments.
"Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions" by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa
This practical guide provides tools to clarify objectives and evaluate options for better decision-making aligned with personal and professional goals.
Academic/ Foundational
Books intended for in-depth practitioners and those doing research on the profession.
"A Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen" by James G. March
This book provides a deep dive into decision-making processes, exploring organizational, psychological, and economic influences on decisions. It addresses complexities like uncertainty and social factors in decision-making within organizations.
"Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications" edited by Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, and Detlof von Winterfeldt
This collection of insights from experts covers cutting-edge topics in decision theory, risk management, and behavioral research, offering practical applications for scholars and decision-making professionals.
"Decision Making for Enhanced Health Security" by Gilberto Montibeller
Montibeller explores decision-making in health security, offering frameworks for health risk management and emergency preparedness, with a focus on pandemic and intervention planning.
"Foundations of Decision Analysis" by Ronald A. Howard
This comprehensive book introduces key principles in decision analysis, including utility theory and risk management, providing a structured approach to complex decision-making.
"Invaluable: How to Think Better and Live with Purpose" by Somik Raha
Raha’s book guides readers on value-focused thinking, helping them align decisions with personal values for a meaningful and purpose-driven life.
"The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis" by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson
This foundational text offers rigorous yet accessible frameworks for decision analysis, covering decision trees, risk management, and the value of information.
"Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision Making" by Ralph L. Keeney
Keeney emphasizes prioritizing values before exploring alternatives, allowing for more creative, goal-aligned decision-making in personal and professional settings.