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Knowledge Content Library

Should you create project level alternatives in portfolios?
Presented by Jeffrey Kiesler (University of Massachusetts) at 2012 DAAG Conference in Chicago. One way that portfolio decision analysis adds value is by improving the set of alternatives from which we choose. This set can be enriched by generating multiple alternatives involving different amounts of funding at the project level.

The use of decision analysis for Phase 2 and Phase 3 drug development decisions
Presented by Elayne Ko (Deloitte) and Charles Persinger (Eli Lilly) at 2012 DAAG Conference in Chicago. The characteristics of drug development in Phase 2 and 3 are explored, and the implications of applying decision analysis process for the Phase 2 and 3 drug development decisions are highlighted.

Everything We Know is Wrong - Leach
Presented by Pat Leach (Decision Strategies) at 2012 DAAG Conference in Chicago. All of the logic, intuition, and metrics humans have for making decisions were developed during a time when resources were abundant, populations were relatively small, and we could focus on maximizing returns today because tomorrow always held new frontiers. None of this is true anymore.

Decision Analysis Without Jargon or Models or DA as a Natural Act
Presented by Rob Kleinbaum (RAK) at 2012 DAAG Conference in Chicago. Applications of decision analysis in which monetization and jargon were deliberately avoided. These interactions were intentionally designed to help decision makers gain clarity of action through a quality decision process without monetary rollbacks, NPVs or fancy, highfalutin, special language.

Multi-attribute Decision Analysis
Presented by Dave Charlesworth (Chevron) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. What is Multi‐attribute Decision Analysis and when should it be used? Common mistakes, protocol for executing the analysis, and case studies.

Soft Skills are DA Skills Too: Overview of Soft Skills Workshop
Presented by Paul Wicker (Decision Strategies) and Jack Kloeber (Kromite) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Notes from a workshop on soft skills, including an example of eliciting risk attitude from decision makers.

Decision Consulting at Eli Lilly and Company: A Journey (History, Evolution and Challenges)
Presented by Charles Persinger (Eli Lilly) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. History and lessons learned from decision consulting within Eli Lilly.

Probabilistic Modeling to Support and Facilitate Decision Making in Early Drug Development
Presented by Huybert Groenendaal (EpiX Analytics) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Overview of use of probabilistic methods to combine wide range of data sources into one decision supporting model.

Technology Selection Decision: With the Shoe on the Other Foot
Presented by Jerry Lieberman and Rick Mauro (Endeavor Management) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of how technology decisions should be treated as business investments.

Decision Analysis - Comparison of Pharmaceutical & Upstream Oil
Presented by Vish Viswanathan (Chevron) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Comparison of the similarities and differences in the use of Decision Analysis in Pharma and Oil & Gas.

Risk & Uncertainty (R&U) Benchmarking and Insights
Presented by Jeremy Brann, Steve Letros, Ashu Patwardhan, Kevin Powell (Shell) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Risk & Uncertainty Benchmarking is a data repository for an individual Projects R&U data - the objective of the activity is to perform Risk and Uncertainty for project comparisons.

Understanding the Value of Simops Decisions on Well Planning and Execution Using Decision Analysis
Presented by Leslie Armentrout (Hess) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Example of decision analysis applied to simultaneous operations of high risk activities (Simops) in well planning.

Cleaner Analysis: Quicker Decision, Three Examples from Government
Presented by Mark Powell (Attwater Consulting) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Three examples of the issues encountered when making technical decisions for government projects, including two NASA projects and one US Coast Guard project.

Theory, Best Practices, and An Illustrative Example
Presented by Gregory Parnell (US Military Academy) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion and examples of defining objectives and metrics for measuring them.

Survey of Value‐Focused Thinking: Applications, Research Developments, and Areas for Future Research
Presented by Dave Hughes, Greg Parnell, Roger Burk, Pat Driscoll, Paul Kucik, Ben Morales, Lawrence Nunn (US Military Academy) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Goal is to provide a comprehensive summary of the significant applications of Value Focused Thinking, describe the main research developments, and identify areas for future research.

The Art of Making the Right Thing Happen
Presented by Rob Kleinbaum (RAK) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. If DA practitioners want to become more effective at changing their company, they must become more adept at creating a culture of profitability.

Oil & Gas Appraisal and VOI: How the Game Changes Things
Presented by Paul Papayoanou (sgg) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of value of information within a game theory context.

Discretization, Simulation, & Swanson’s (Inaccurate) Mean
Presented by Eric Bickel (University of Texas) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of errors that can occur from discretization of continuous distributions using common approximation methods.

I love decision analysis. I just wish it didn’t involve people. Examples, Lessons, and Anecdotes about DA Communication
Presented by Stuart Harris (Decision Frameworks) at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Examples of communication that we see as reasonable as DA practitioners, but which often had to change to successfully get the buy-in those in need of a decision/solution.

Exploratory Decision Analysis of the Future of the Automobile in the USA
Presented by Max Henrion (Lumina Decision Systems) with Xirong Jiang and Surya Swamy at 2011 DAAG Conference in Houston. Example of modeling used to explore the future of the automobile in the US.

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