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Blue Books

The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis

This collection was published in 1983 and has since been known as the blue books, after the blue front cover. We have tried to place online all of the content that we have copyright permission to reproduce. If you are an author listed in this collection and have the copyright to your paper, please contact Hilda at decision professionals.com to give us permission to include the digital version on our site.

The full collection can also be purchased on Amazon. The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis : 2 Volume SetClick to View on Amazon





What is Decision Analysis?



1. The Evolution of Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard

2. An Introduction to Decision Analysis - J. E. Matheson and R. A. Howard

3. Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering - R. A. Howard

4. Decision Analysis: Applied Decision Theory - R. A. Howard

5. A Tutorial introduction to Decision Theory - D. W. North

6. A Tutorial in Decision Analysis - C. S. Staƫl von Holstein

7.  The Science of Decision-Making - R. A. Howard

8. An Assessment of Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard



Investment and Strategic Planning

9.  Decision Analysis Practice: Examples and Insights - J. E. Matheson

10. Decision Analysis of a Facilities Investment and Expansion Problem - C S. Spetzler and R. M. Zamora

11. Strategic Planning in an Age of Uncertainty - M. M. Menke

12. A Decision Analysis of a Petrochemical Expansion Study - T.J. Braunstein

13. The Dangerous Quest for Certainty in Market Forecasting - R. Abt, M. Borja, M. M. Menke, and J. P. Pezier

14. An inside View: Analyzing investment Strategies - R. F. Egger and M. M. Menke

15. Managing the Corporate Business Portfolio - J. E. Matheson

Research and Development

16.  Overview of R&D Decision Analysis - J. E. Matheson

17.  Using Decision Analysis to Determine R&D's Value - M. M. Menke

Article from Inside R&D

18.  Selecting Projects to Obtain a Balanced Research Portfolio - D. L Owen

19.  Calling the Shots in R&D - H. U. Balthasar, R. A. A. Boschi, and M. M. Menke

20. Quantifying and Forecasting Exploratory Research Success - R. A. A. Boschi, H. U. Balthasar, and M. M. Menke

21.  Evaluating Basic Research Strategies - M. M. Menke, J. Celzer, and J. P. Pezier

Social Policy

22. Social Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard

23. The Decision to Seed Hurricanes  - R. A. Howard, J. E. Matheson, and D. W. North

24. Decision Analysis of the Synthetic Fuels Commercialization Program - S. N. Tani

25. Decision Analysis of Space Projects: Voyager Mars - J. E. Matheson and W. J. Roths




26.  On Making Life and Death Decisions - R. A. Howard

27.   The Value of Life and Nuclear Design - D. L Owen, J. £ Matheson, and R. A. Howard

28.  The Design of Hazardous Products - D. L Owen

29.  On Being Environmentally Decisive - P. A. Owen and S. B. Engle

30.  On Fates Comparable to Death - R. A. Howard



31.  The Foundations of Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard

32. The Difficulty of Assessing Uncertainty - E. C. Capen

33. Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis  - C. S. Spetzler and C. 5. Stael von Holstein

34. Risk Preference - R. A. Howard

35. The Development of a Corporate Risk Policy for Capital Investment Decisions - C. S. Spetzler

36. The Used Car Buyer - R. A. Howard

37.  Influence DiagramsR. A. Howard and J. E. Matheson

38. The Use of Influence Diagrams in Structuring Complex Decision Problems  - D. L Owen



39. Information Value Theory - R. A. Howard

40. Value of Information Lotteries - R. A. Howard

41.  The Economic Value of Analysis and Computation - J. E. Matheson

42. Competitive Bidding in High-Risk Situations - E. C. Capen, R. V. Clapp, and W. M. Campbell

43. Decision Analysis: Perspectives on Inference, Decision, and Experimentation - R. A. Howard

44. Bayesian Decision Models for Systems Engineering - R. A. Howard

45. Proximal Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard

46. Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes - R. A. Howard



47. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases A. Tversky and D. Kahneman

48. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk D. Kahneman and A. Tversky

49. The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice A. Tversky and D. Kahneman


List of Theses in Decision Analysis at Stanford University

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