Knowledge Content Library

Thinking about Process, Elicitation and Modelling in Decision Analysis

Simon French
April 26, 2023 (SDP Invited Talk)

Abstract: Decision analysis is much more than maximising an expected utility or value function: we all know that. Nonetheless, we may not reflect as much as we should on the wider, more qualitative processes that surround the analytical and quantitative steps. For instance:

• How and where are different types of knowledge drawn into the process?
• How do we work with and elicit not just numerical subjective probabilities, values and utilities, but softer more structural issues such as the context, models, available data, and appropriate computational methods?
• How do we recognise and address all the uncertainties that relate to a decision and its context?
• How do we report and archive details so that necessary information is available for audit?
• How do we recognise and reflect the wider political and Political processes surrounding the decision?

In discussing these and related questions, I will draw on several other disciplines and schools of thought than usually associated with (Bayesian) decision analysis. It is through the softer, qualitative process steps that we recognise, address and communicate those issues and uncertainties that are not modelled in the quantitative decision analysis, but still need communicating to the decision-makers so that they have a full understanding of the issues when they take their decision.

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Keywords: framing framestruc, analysis and modeling anamod, risk and uncertainty riskunc, probability assessment probass, , elicitation, soft skills and Facilitation ssfacil