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METALOGS + SIPMath = Chance-Informed Insights for Senior Decision Makers

Dr. Sam Savage, ProbabilityManagement.Org
March 20, 2024 (SDP Invited Talk)

Abstract: Our second session will feature Professor Sam Savage using Tom Keelin’s results to build stochastic "paper airplane” models with SIPMath to generate quantitative insights and answer investor questions ranging from "what is the likely distribution of revenue if this study is successful?” to "what is the chance of achieving a peak sales of X in year Y?”. Sam will show how his approach is easily generalized to explore the range of risk and potential returns from uncertain projects and defeat the "Flaw of Averages” thinking from relying on point estimates to make investment decisions.


"Bayesian Estimation of Probability of Success Using Metalogs" featuring Tom Keelin.

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SDP membership is not required for access to this webinar.

Keywords: Analysis anamod, Probability probass, Risk riskanal, Scenario scenanal,

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