Knowledge Content Library
Crowdsourcing technology to estimate PTS
Probability of Success User Interest Group Meeting: Speaker: Adam Siegel (CEO of Cultivate Labs)
Abstract: Adam describes why and how organizations can use crowdsourcing technology to estimate PTS, as well as other probability forecasts. Adam speaks from extensive experience and knowledge through his platform support of crowdsourced forecasting efforts with organizations like DARPA, the US Intelligence Community, the UK Government, AbbVie, Shell, and The Good Judgment Project. This approach involves using internal experts and staff to collaborate on internal forecasting efforts using technology, training, and regular feedback via proper scoring rules. In addition to scoring forecasts, organizations have found the process of forecasting has added badly needed rigor to their decision-making processes by using the crowd forecasts to challenge conventional wisdom, provide early warning, quantify risk, and combat internal biases.
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Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty riskunc, Risk analysis riskanal, Analysis and modeling anamod, Probability assessment probass, expert interviews expint, peer, calibration