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Chancification Overview

Dr. Sam L. Savage, Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org
December 15, 2021 (SDP Invited Talk)

Abstract: The ability to store uncertainties as data that obey both the laws of arithmetic and probability enable simulation models to be networked. In this environment analysts and statisticians generate coherent stochastic libraries for use by those without statistical training in chance informed decision making. This parallels the generation of electricity by power engineers for use by the rest of us in light bulbs. Recent advances in simulation technology correspond to the switch from direct current to alternating current. The direct current is analogous to the SIPmath 2.0 standard, which stores actual Monte Carlo realizations. Alternating current is analogous to the SIPmath 3.0 standard which uses quantile functions such as Tom Keelin's Metalog Distributions driven by cross platform random number generators such as Doug Hubbard's HDR generator. These standards are supported by R, Python and may be used in native Excel. See ProbabillityManagement.org for more details.

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Keywords: analysis and modeling anamod, risk and uncertainty riskunc, risk analysis riskanal

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