Post-Conference Virtual Workshops
Title: "READY, AIM, FRAME – BECOMING POWERFUL DECISION FRAMERS"

Instructors:
Ellen Coopersmith (Decision Frameworks)
Ray Spence (Decision Frameworks)
Ashley Corso (Decision Frameworks)

Date: May 22, 2024
Time: 7:00am to 11:00am PT

Workshop Abstract:      
Refine your decision framing skills and become strong decision framers. Understand different framing workflows for a variety of decisions and learn how to apply the appropriate framing steps/tools to enable informed decisions for EACH type of decision problem. Learn to facilitate the framing workflows to enable productive dialogue and thoughtful and informed decision frames. This interactive class will be divided into three framing teams. Each will be framing the same interesting opening a new business strategy, which is an industry agnostic case using different framing workflow: Standard Decision Framing, De-risking Decision Framing and Scenario Thinking Decision Framing. Facilitation skills to ensure efficient framing of the workflows and dialogue with decision makers will tighten the skill set, along with Decision Frameworks Decision Quality Toolbox as very useful reference manual post the course.

This workshop is intended for:
New/Beginner Decision Practitioners
Intermediate Decision Practitioners
Experienced Decision Practitioners

Stavanger Chapter In-Person
SDP STAVANGER CHAPTER MEETING
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
18:30 - 20:30 | IN-PERSON

The Stavanger Chapter of the Society of Decision Professionals warmly welcomes you to join us for our 3rd Chapter meeting. Our agenda for this gathering encompasses both important business matters and a presentation by a distinguished Keynote Speaker. The meeting with be held at the University of Stavanger, Stavanger and pre-registration is required. There are limited places available so the registration will be done on "først til mølle" basis.

KEYNOTE SPEAKER: Jean-Paul Koninx, DecisionQraft
“Upgrading DQ from a business skill to a life skill”

AGENDA:
18:30 - Registration and networking
18:50 - Meeting Opening, Welcome and Introductions
19:00 - SDP Stavanger Chapter: Strategy & Longcast - topics, themes, timings and ideas
19:30 - Jean-Paul Koninx - “Upgrading DQ from a business skill to a life skill”
20:15 - Next Event(s) and shortcast proposal - what is in the pipeline
20:30 - Meeting ends

MEET OUR SPEAKER: Jean-Paul Koninx, DecisionQraft
Jean-Paul Koninx is the founder of DecisionQraft, a company dedicated to bringing decision skills to companies and the wider society. Decision-making under uncertainty has been a common theme in his 30-year career, most of these with Shell as a Petroleum Engineer, in both technical and leadership roles across many locations worldwide – including six years with Norske Shell in Stavanger. Jean-Paul is Lead Practitioner for the SDP (Society of Decision Professionals) as well as Chartered Project Professional with APM (Association for Project Management). He holds a PhD in Astrophysics from Utrecht University in the Netherlands

Abstract:
Decision Quality as concept touches on many analytical and psychological areas - it is fascinatingly human. And, while recognising both the analytical and behavioural sides, most of us see DQ as a great business skill. If only all of us (i.e. our managers, our organisation) would adopt it, right? So why isn’t DQ as a tool spreading like wildfire in our organisations?
In this presentation I will share some observations of my own 24-year DA/DQ journey, many of those years it was “just” a neat analytical business skill. And I propose that a key to further Organisational DQ is to embrace DQ as a life skill. Which raises the question - what are the key triggers to make that pivot?

***Registration is required for RSVP

Speaker: Elisabeth Pate-Cornell (Stanford University)

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve life and reduce risks by providing large amounts of information embedded in big databases and by suggesting or implementing automated decisions under uncertainties. Yet, in the design of a prescriptive AI algorithm, some problems may occur, first and clearly, if the AI information is wrong or incomplete. But the main point of this article is that under uncertainties, the decision algorithm, rational or not, includes, in one way or another, a risk attitude in addition to deterministic preferences. That risk attitude implemented in the software is chosen by the analysts, the organization that they serve, the experts who inform them, and more generally by the process of identifying possible options. The problem is that it may or may not represent, as it should, the preferences of the actual decision maker (the risk manager) and of the people subjected to his/her decisions. This article briefly describes the sometimes-serious problem of that discrepancy between the preferences of the risk managers who use an AI output, and the risk attitude embedded in the AI system. The recommendation is to make these AI factors as accessible and transparent as possible and to allow for preference adjustments in the model if needed. The formulation of two simplified examples is described, that of a medical doctor and his/her patient when using an AI system to decide of a treatment option, and that of a skipper in a sailing race such as the America's Cup, receiving AI-processed sensor signals about the sailing conditions on different possible courses.

Post-Conference Virtual Workshops
Title: "An Introduction to Decision Analysis"

Instructor:
J. Eric Bickel (University of Texas at Austin)

Date: June 13, 2024
Time: 7:00am to 11:00am PT

Workshop Abstract:      
In this workshop we will cover the foundations of decision analysis. This includes the fundamental concepts of risk preference and the personalistic view of probability, which set decision analysis apart from other approaches to decision making.

We explore the meaning of probability – and the fact probability does not exist. We will discuss how to capture risk preference and why we often assume risk neutrality (expected value) in practice – it is not because we are making many decisions. Finally, we learn how to place a value on information – reducing uncertainty does not add value.

This workshop is intended for:

New/Beginner Decision Practitioners
Intermediate Decision Practitioners

Post-Conference Virtual Workshops
Title: "Estuarine Mapping and the Evolutionary Potential of the Present"

Instructor:
Dave Snowden (Cynefin Co.)

Date: June 20, 2024
Time: 8:00am to 12:00pm PT

Workshop Abstract:      
Join leading complexity thinker Dave Snowden to explore a complexity-informed approach to navigating organisational strategy and change, understanding the evolutionary potential of the present in foresight. Estuarine Mapping is the latest framework from the creator of the Cynefin framework and is gaining traction worldwide in industry and government as a tool to approach decision-making, strategy, conflict, direction-setting and a host of other needs in complex contexts. In this hands-on, interactive workshop, you will learn methods to assess the constraints at play, to manage the energy gradients to lower the cost of change, whilst allowing for emergence along the way. Explore how the Estuarine framework links into radical new means of distributed decision-making at the intersections of technology and human sense-making, to find novel possibilities along the path. This workshop also covers: what we can change and manage in a complex environment, what we do when simple goals don’t work, how to plan for uncertainty, how to combine grand vision with day-to-day tactics

This workshop is intended for:
Intermediate Decision Practitioners
Experienced Decision Practitioners