Probability of Success | Interest Group
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About SDP Interest Groups
An SDP Interest Group (SDP-IG) is a moderated group of SDP members who share an interest in a specific topic. The scope of the activities of an SDP-IG can range from occasional teleconferences sharing ideas between a few members to face to face conferences attracting a broader audience.
The insights developed by an SDP-IG will be made available to the broader SDP community in a suitable way. The SDP Knowledge Sharing Council helps support these SDP-IGs and participation is free. The only requirement is that you are a member of SDP.
About Probability of Success (POS) Interest Group - You are Invited!
Estimating the probability of success to guide investment decisions spans multiple industries and technologies. This is true whether a company is developing new molecular treatments for unmet medical needs, investing in renewable energy assets, or developing a next generation airliner. All of these examples involve assessing and forecasting the likelihood of success for complex technical projects with high risk of failure, large investments, and long development time-lines. Providing decision makers with actionable, predictive assessments of potential success are critical for achieving desired outcomes.
Kick-Off Meeting Agenda: Please join us for our first cross-industry (Biopharma/Energy/Aerospace) interest group sponsored by the Society of Decision Professionals (SDP) on Probability of Success. This multidisciplinary group will meet quarterly in a non-competitive environment to present/discuss emerging ‘best practices’ and approaches to estimate PoS for various activities.
Our first session features 3 speakers from Pharma and Energy that present their approaches to providing plausible estimates of success to guide decision-making. 1. Eli Lilly PoS Estimation – Jay Andersen and Charles Persinger & 2. Reference Class Forecasting – What BioPharma can Learn from Probabilistic Forecasts in Energy – Reidar Bratvold. Please join us for a timely presentation that cuts across disciplines and illustrates the value of combining Decision Analysis, Clear Thinking, and Data Science to solve real world problems.
SPEAKERS
- JAY ANDERSEN | is a Fellow and two-time Board Member of the Society of Decision Professionals. He retired as Senior Research Fellow from Eli Lilly in 2017 following a 28-year career as an internal decision analysis consultant to senior management. He was instrumental in the design and application of the R&D portfolio process.
- CHARLES PERSINGER | is an Executive Director in Decision Sciences at Eli Lilly with 20 years of experience as an internal management consultant on portfolio and project decisions. In 2010, he succeeded Jay Andersen as the leader of Lilly’s approach to assessing Probability of Success for drug development projects. He has been a member of the Society of Decision Professionals since its inception.
- REIDAR BRATVOLD | Professor of Petroleum Investment and Decision Analysis at the University of Stavanger. At the Norwegian Institute of Technology, he supervises graduate-level students researching decision analysis, project valuation, portfolio analysis, and behavioral challenges in decision-making.
MODERATORS
- SHAUN COMFORT | is a Principle Scientific Enablement Director at Roche, leading innovation work supporting Pharmacovigilance. He is a Neurologist with 20+ years combined biopharma industry/regulatory experience. Dr. Comfort’s current work focuses on combining machine-learning models and decision analysis techniques to evaluate Drug-Adverse Event causality and predict Project/Phase Probability of Success.
- ERIC JOHNSON | supports drug development decision making at GSK, where he is helping the new DA practice to grow. Previously he had done DA work at BMS, and for consultancies. He is co-author of the Handbook of Decision analysis, and a Fellow of SDP.
Join Us!
If you are interested in learning more about this Interest Group and/or joining please fill out the form below.
