SDP Stavanger Chapter Webinar
Date & Time:
Monday, September 29, 2025
16:00 – 17:00
Topic:
The Risks of Using Risk Matrices
with Prof. Reidar Bratvold
Professor, University of Stavanger
Event Overview:
Join the SDP Stavanger Chapter for an engaging session with Prof. Reidar Bratvold as he explores the challenges and limitations of using risk matrices. This webinar will provide valuable insights for decision professionals who want to enhance their understanding of risk analysis and improve decision quality practices.
Abstract
Risk matrices are widely used across industries - from oil and gas to aviation, healthcare, finance, and construction - as the default tool for assessing and prioritizing risks. They are embedded in standards such as ISO, API, and NORSOK and often promoted as “best practice.”
Their appeal lies in their simplicity and visual clarity, which are thought to improve communication. The problem is that there is no scientific or empirical evidence showing that risk matrices actually improve risk management or decision quality - in fact, a systematic search using AI could not identify a single piece of evidence that they work. Our research and real-world examples show the opposite: risk matrices generate arbitrary and unstable rankings, distort probabilities and consequences, and create an illusion of rigor that hides more than it clarifies.
Flaws such as ranking reversals, instability from minor design choices, range compression, and
distorted scales are built into the method and cannot be fixed. As a result, risk matrices are not
just useless—they are worse than useless, systematically directing attention and resources to the wrong risks. In this talk, I will illustrate these failings and point to decision-analytic and decision quality frameworks that are grounded in science and practice.
Meet the Speaker
Reidar Bratvold
Professor of Investment and Decision Analysis, University of Stavanger
Reidar B. Bratvold is a Professor of Investment and Decision Analysis at the University of Stavanger in Norway. His research and teaching interests include decision analysis, project valuation, portfolio analysis, real options, and behavioral decision-making. He is a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals and has co-authored the book “Making Good Decisions” with Steve Begg. Reidar has worked with a wide range of companies in the energy industry and served on the board of the Society of Decision Professionals. He is a recipient of the 2023 Frank Ramsey Medal from the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society.
Moderator
Peter Wood
Decision Quality Principle Technical Expert - Shell Plc
With over 24 years at Shell, Peter Wood joined the Shell internal Opportunity Value Assurance (OVA) team in 2023. This team of approximately 20 professionals, based in the Netherlands and the UK, provides independent assurance and investment appraisal advice for all capital expenditure and new business development proposals presented to the Shell Executive Committee and Board.
Peter has coached more than 200 senior leaders across Shell’s businesses, including deal and project leads, Decision Executives, and Decision Review Board members. He specializes in embedding practical Decision Quality (DQ) behaviors and practices into high-stakes decision-making and has led enterprise-wide learning programs to strengthen Shell’s DQ capabilities.