Society of Decision Professionals (SDP) Public Webinar:
“A Framework for Selecting Action Portfolios with Incomplete & Action-Dependent Scenario Probabilities”
Featuring: Eeva Vilkkumaa (Aalto University School of Business)
Moderated by: Robin Dillon-Merrill (DAS-INFORMS)
Location: Online
This webinar will be held via Zoom.
The Zoom link will be sent in your confirmation email after you RSVP. Please register in advance to ensure access.
Abstract:
Companies pursue their goals by selecting and implementing a combination or portfolio of actions that consume resources. The extent to which these actions help attain the companies’ objectives is often contingent on whether a given future scenario is realized. We present a model-based framework for supporting the selection of a portfolio of actions that is robust across different scenarios while accounting for the impacts that the actions may have on the probabilities of these scenarios. For the purposes of this framework, we develop a new portfolio decision analytic model and algorithms to help generate decision recommendations when the actions’ impacts, preferences between the objectives, and scenario probabilities are incompletely specified. The framework is applied in a high-impact case on supporting the strategy process at the payments unit of Nordea Bank Abp, the largest retail bank in the Nordic countries.
Meet the Speaker:
Eeva Vilkkumaa
Associate Professor of Management Science at the Department of Information and Service Management,
Aalto University School of Business
Dr. Eeva Vilkkumaa is an Associate Professor of Management Science at the Department of Information and Service Management at Aalto University School of Business, Finland. Her research interests include multicriteria decision analysis, portfolio decision analysis, scenario methods, and behavioral decision theory with applications to healthcare and strategy development. She has 18 years of experience in teaching courses on operations research, business analytics, and strategic foresight at Aalto University and Aalto Executive Education and Professional Development. Vilkkumaa has published in leading scientific journals such as Management Science, Operations Research, and European Journal of Operational Research. She is an Editorial Board member of the Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis. She has also been a partner and consultant in two companies specializing in the use of mathematical modeling for decision support and strategy development: Decision&Action (2016-) and Swanlake Strategy (2020-2024).
Moderator:
Robin Dillon-Merrill
President, DAS-INFORMS
Robin Dillon-Merrill has been a faculty member at the McDonough School of Business (MSB) at Georgetown University since 2001 and currently serves as the Area Chair for the Operations and Analytics group. From 2017-2019 she served as the Program Director for the National Science Foundation’s Humans, Disasters and the Built Environment program in the Directorate of Engineering. She seeks to understand and explain how and why people make the decisions that they do under conditions of uncertainty and risk. She is currently the President of the Decision Analysis Society within INFORMS.