Bayesian Interest Group

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  • 1.  Key topics for discussion

    Posted 20 days ago

    Hey group,

    Welcome to the Bayesian Interest Group.



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    Sheldon Bernard
    Founder
    A440 Management LLC
    Cary, NC, USA
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  • 2.  RE: Key topics for discussion

    Posted 13 days ago

    Hi Sheldon,

    Hopefully it is not too late for ideas on Bayesian topics.  A particular interest I have is in understanding/figuring out how to make the methods (such as updating) usable in a practical setting.  I've had a couple of shots over the last three years at applying Bayesian updating to practical challenges, but the usual participant response (quizzically pleasant tolerance) would suggest that it doesn't make sense for people.  I suspect it is because coming up with likelihoods is like an odd combination of scenarios and conditional probabilities. And, I've never been able to land on an explanation that is true to the method and still easily comprehended.

    Thanks

    Jeff



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    Jeffrey Cooke
    Manager, Collaboration for Decision Quality
    ConocoPhillips
    Houston TX
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    Original Message


  • 3.  RE: Key topics for discussion

    Posted 13 days ago

    Jeffrey -

    In short fulfilling the "Bayesian promise" is the answer -- that data and judgement-derived probabilities can be combined in a principled way.  Data via Bayesian machine learning) generates a likelihood, and judgement obtains prior.  For many variables all  you may have is the prior, but when available it pays to find data that can inform your model.    I gave a talk last year at the annual conference with an example.   



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    John Mark Agosta
    johnmark.agosta@fondata.ai
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    LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-mark-agosta/
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    Find me at https://medium.com/@johnmark54
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    Original Message


  • 4.  RE: Key topics for discussion

    Posted 4 days ago

    Thanks Jeff,

    I think this is a "must have" discussion.  I've had some success with it, however only when I've been tasked with doing some executive education first.  I'll work it into an afternoon workshop and then after that implementation is much smoother.  I've tried introducing the concept "cold", as it were, no success there.  I'd be curious as to the experience of others.  It's a very non-intuitive thing and I don't think most corporate professionals get it; I've often heard "why am I taking old information into account? Why not just use the latest data I have?"



    ------------------------------
    Sheldon Bernard
    Founder
    A440 Management LLC
    Cary, NC, USA
    ------------------------------

    Original Message


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