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Exploratory decision analysis and surprises: The future of the automobile

Presented by Max Henrion — SDP Fellow (SDP Webinar - Invited Talk)

Cellulosic biofuels, new kinds of battery, hydrogen fuel cells, and lightweight materials are just a few of the technologies proposed to reduce oil imports and CO2 emissions from the US vehicle fleet. Given the large uncertainties about their performance and cost, evolving consumer preferences, and the long timescale for fleet turnover, how can we develop coherent policies, including "push" -- supporting R&D -- or "pull" -- efficiency standards, carbon taxes, and other incentives? How can we prepare for inevitable surprises in markets, fuel prices, and technical breakthroughs or disappointments? 

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Keywords: evaluation anamod, automobile, modeling modtree, influence diagram infldiag, sensitivity analysis sensanal, tornado chart torncht, uncertainty analysis uncanal, probability assessment probass, expert interview expint, elicitation, government