Presenter: Phil Beccue, White Deer Partners

Presented at the 2017 DAAG Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana.  In Session 2: Risk Assessment and Management

Abstract: Estimating the size and duration of potential future oil disruptions are critical to determining the value of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and its desired size. We will discuss a recent risk assessment given by leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts who provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. A structured framework developed through decision and risk analysis techniques provided an efficient method to quantify the complexity surrounding oil disruption scenarios in a transparent and traceable logic.
Keywords: influence diagram infldiag, probability assessment probass, modeling modtree, risk and uncertainty riskunc, risk analysis riskanal

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