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Events Don’t sweat the small stuff? Experiences with Near MissesSDP Free Webinar - Co-Sponsored with the Decision Analysis Society (DAS)
Speaker: Robin Dillon-Merrill, Professor, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University Moderator: Richard S. John, Professor of Psychology, University of Southern California A near-miss is an event where the possibility of a failure is present but does not materialize. Many organizations in high-hazard industries have recently adopted near-miss learning systems in the hope that their members will learn from such events to prevent significant failures from occurring in the future. The challenge with correctly learning from near misses is that since the event is not a failure, decision makers must recognize that although a negative event did not happen, it might have occurred. If decision makers do not correctly distinguish between successes and near misses, organizations and their members can systematically take away the wrong lessons from the event and future performance could decline (rather than improve) as experience accumulates. This talk will summarize prior research that examines near-misses in a variety of safety critical contexts including space missions, commercial aviation and the US coal mining industry. The research uses both field data and behavioral laboratory studies to generate insights into how decision makers think about near-misses and what is commonly learned from these events. Add this event to your calendar
Speaker Robin L. Dillon-Merrill
Robin L. Dillon-Merrill is a Professor in the McDonough School of Business (MSB) at Georgetown University. From 2017-2019 she served as the Program Director for the National Science Foundation’s Humans, Disasters and the Built Environment program in the Directorate of Engineering. She seeks to understand and explain how and why people make the decisions that they do under conditions of uncertainty and risk. This research specifically examines critical decisions that people have made following near-miss events in situations with severe outcomes including hurricane evacuation, terrorism, cybersecurity, and NASA mission management.
Moderator
Richard John Richard John is Professor of Psychology and Associate Director at the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE) at the University of Southern California. His research focuses on normative and descriptive models of human judgment and decision making and methodological issues in the application of decision analysis and probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Richard has consulted on a number of large projects involving expert elicitation, including analysis of nuclear power plant risks (NUREG 1150) and analysis of cost and schedule risk for tritium supply alternatives. Richard has over 120 refereed publications.
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