Printed from: Society of Decision Professionals

Print Page

Knowledge Content Library

Probability Elicitation and Calibration in a Research & Development Portfolio: A 13-Year Case Study 

Presented by: Jay Andersen, Ph.D., SDP Fellow 
(SDP Webinar - Invited Talk)

The effective quantification of the technical feasibility of research activities is an integral component of an R&D portfolio process.  However, there are many hurdles that can obstruct a quality assessment, including bias, lack of calibration, and organizational resistance.  This webinar provides a 13-year case study of the implementation of a process for the assessment of technical feasibility in an R&D portfolio, comparing probability assessments to actual success rates.

Click on the file below to hear a sample of the presentation.  

Click here for access to the full video and pdf.

SDP membership is required for full access to this and all other archived webinars.

Keywords: evaluation anamod, organizational capability orgcap, portfolio decision analysis portda, probability assessment probass, elicitation, uncertainty analysis uncanal, facilitation ssfacil, cognitive biases cogbias, lookback, learning organization, implementation of da implda

   Email Print

All Content Rights Reserved , Society of Decision Professionals
Captavi - SaaS CMS Platform ©