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Probability Elicitation and Calibration in a Research & Development Portfolio: A 13-Year Case Study 

Presented by: Jay Andersen, Ph.D., SDP Fellow 
(SDP Webinar - Invited Talk)

The effective quantification of the technical feasibility of research activities is an integral component of an R&D portfolio process.  However, there are many hurdles that can obstruct a quality assessment, including bias, lack of calibration, and organizational resistance.  This webinar provides a 13-year case study of the implementation of a process for the assessment of technical feasibility in an R&D portfolio, comparing probability assessments to actual success rates.

Click on the file below to hear a sample of the presentation.  

Click here for access to the full video and pdf.

SDP membership is required for full access to this and all other archived webinars.

Keywords: evaluation anamod, organizational capability orgcap, portfolio decision analysis portda, probability assessment probass, elicitation, uncertainty analysis uncanal, facilitation ssfacil, cognitive biases cogbias, lookback, learning organization, implementation of da implda

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