Knowledge Content Library
Decision Analysis: Framework and Toolkit
Presented by Robert T. Clemen, Duke University, SDP Fellow,
Whether you are new to decision analysis or have been around it for a while, you know that sometimes decisions are just hard, often in many ways. In this presentation, Professor Clemen highlights some of the issues that a decision analyst must deal with, including uncertainty and lack of knowledge, multiple stakeholders, complex preferences, constraints, and organizational issues. Decision analysis provides a way to get past using your intuition and instead thinking carefully and deliberately about the decision. Clemen talks about the decision analysis framework - how he views the world of decisions - and the collection of tools available to analysts to address those decisions. Examples from his own experience and others illustrate using the framework and the tools, sometimes very effectively, and sometimes in ways that might have made the decision harder than it needed to be!
Click on the file below to hear a sample of the presentation.
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Keywords: framing framestruc, evaluation anamod, stakeholder, constraints, intuition, objectives, decision quality decqual, modeling modtree, decision tree dectrees, optimization optz, Monte Carlo mcsim, sensitivity analysis sensanal, multi-objective multobj, portfolio decision analysis portda, bias, value of da valueda, organizational capability orgcap, implementation of DA implda