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Scenario Thinking for Strategy Development – A Must for the Energy Transition

Ellen Coopersmith, Founder & President of Decision Frameworks
October 13, 2021 (SDP Invited Talk)

Abstract: Most strategies, whether for our business or our projects, are built on specific beliefs about the future, especially when it comes to the global landscape. This of course poses a problem because the future is deeply unpredictable. Worse, the requirements for breakthrough success demand implementing strategy in ways that often make it difficult to adapt should the future turn out differently than planned.

The energy transition heightens this situation. Now, we not only face typical project uncertainties as we forge the path to net zero, but we also face technology maturation and acceptance, coupled with carbon policy evolution uncertainty. So, how can we help our teams break their paradigms to creatively frame alternatives strategies to solve their problems and set their projects up for success?

Scenario thinking is the perfect tool. This webinar introduces a proven decision quality framing – scenario thinking approach for projects facing energy transition uncertainties. The workflow is introduced using a relevant case example to illustrate the steps and the insights they bring. Traditional decision framing sets up the problem definition. Scenario thinking ranks the business landscape uncertainties and paints the different possible futures the project may face. Winning strategies are developed for the different futures and qualitatively assessed for their robustness in all the possible futures.

What do we gain? An eyes-wide-open decision on our options and the optionality we may want to build into our plans. With limited extra effort…how can we afford not to do this? Come join us and learn how.

Click on the file below to hear a sample of the presentation.  

Click here for access to the full video.

SDP membership is required for access to this webinar.

Keywords: framing framestruc tools framtool, scenario planning, evaluation anamod, strategy development stratdev, strategy table strattab, decision hierarchy dechier

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