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How to Use the Value of Information to improve decision policy in Oil and Gas
San Francisco Chapter Meeting: Speaker Trygve Botn, ThinQ Decisions
This live Excel presentation demonstrates how to 1) frame a Value of Imperfect Information evaluation of a drilling problem, 2) quantify the frame in a risk model using continuous variables, 3) solve the problem frame using simulation to establish the decision policy and 4) explain how to reduce downside and possibly increase the upside. We complete the model together and extract insights from the analysis. We make change to the analysis based on Subject Matter Expers (SMEs) inputs by altering the model and updating the decision policy and insights. The model structure and detail are apparent to enable you to structure your own SIPmath model.
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Keywords: evaluation anamod, modeling modtree, uncertainty analysis uncanal, Monte Carlo simulation mcsim, voi voivoc, bayes, SIPmath