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Clarifying Tradeoffs Using Simple Decision Trees

Ahren Lacy - Chevron
January 26, 2016 (SDP Webinar Invited Talk)

Significant insight is often obtained by means of simple decision trees, even in complex engineering or business decisions. This requires careful identification of key uncertainties to define clear possibilities with comparable payoffs. Decision trees enable sensitivity analysis to unanchor groups and provide appropriate focus for future work to increase organizational decision quality. The author will discuss several real-world project applications where clear distinctions led to clarity of action.

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Keywords: evaluation anamod, framing framestruc, modeling modtree, decision tree dectree, consequences table conseqtab, multi-objective multobj, decision quality decqual, sensitivity analysis sensanal

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