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When:  Jan 21, 2026 from 15:00 to 16:30 (CT)
Where:   bp Campus, 501 Westlake Park Blvd, Room 1.130, Houston, TX, 77079, US
Community:   Houston

When & Where



bp Campus
501 Westlake Park Blvd
Houston, TX 77079
US

Jan 21, 15:00 - 16:30 (CT)

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Description

The SDP Houston Chapter is excited to kick off the new year with a featured talk by Paul Wicker—an experienced strategy and Decision Analysis consultant with more than 40 years of experience in facilitation, probabilistic modeling, financial project analysis, and strategy development across the oil, gas, and chemicals industries.

This is a rare opportunity to learn from Paul’s deep, practical experience, and we warmly welcome everyone—whether you’re a long-time SDP member or joining us for the first time.

FEATURED TALK

"Robust Strategy Design: The Power and Limits of Scenario Analysis"

In this session, Paul will take a thoughtful and practical look at scenario analysis—a tool many organizations rely on to think about the future. He’ll explore where scenario analysis truly adds value, where it can fall short, and why relying on it alone—without probabilistic insight—can sometimes lead organizations astray.

Paul will also discuss how probabilistic methods and scenario analysis can work together to strengthen strategic decisions, stress-test strategy robustness, and inform contingency planning in uncertain environments. Expect practical insights, real-world perspective, and plenty of food for thought.

We’re excited to learn from Paul’s perspective and invite you to actively engage in the discussion that follows.

TALK ABSTRACT:

This talk will explore the dual nature of scenario analysis as both a useful strategic tool and one with significant limitations. While scenario analysis is widely praised for expanding strategic thinking by exploring diverse future environments, it is fundamentally weak when used to develop strategy. Its main shortcoming is the absence of probabilistic guidance—traditional scenario planning treats a small number of imagined futures and fails to quantify the likelihood of each. This can lead organizations to design strategies influenced by highly improbable worst-case combinations.

Probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo simulation offer far richer insights for strategic choice by generating thousands of outcome variations and providing probability distributions. However, once a lead strategy is chosen, scenario analysis becomes highly valuable. It enables organizations to stress-test strategy resilience across different plausible worlds, identify vulnerabilities, and design hybrid options and risk-mitigation plans. Ultimately, scenario analysis should not be the basis for selecting strategy but it can be a powerful tool when used properly to evaluate strategic robustness and inform contingency planning in uncertain environments.

SPEAKER BIO: 

PAUL WICKER is an experienced strategy and Decision Analysis (DA) consultant with extensive experience in facilitation, probabilistic modeling, and teaching. He is highly skilled in Financial Project Analysis and Strategy Development with over 40 years of experience in the oil & gas/chemicals industry. Mr. Wicker has worked for Texaco as a process engineer and for Chevron as a full-time Decision Analyst. Additionally, he was a DA Consultant for 16 years working with major clients in the industry including: Chevron, ExxonMobil, Staatsolie, Shell, Hess, Husky, Anadarko, and many others. He has experience in downstream chemicals, lubricants, fuel additives as well as upstream project financial analysis including value of information and value of control. He has taught a wide range of courses from Probabilistic Modeling to Basic Decision Analysis and is a Fellow with the Society of Decision Professionals.

THANK YOU TO bp FOR YOUR GENEROSITY IN HOSTING THE EVENT!

Pricing

registration type
regular
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$0.00

Contact Information

Houston Chapter

houstonchapter@decisionprofessionals.com

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