Presenter: Michael N. Liebman, Managing Director, IPQ Analytics LLC, and Adj. Professor, Drexel College of Medicine.
Moderator: Gary Summers, President, Pipeline Physics LLC.
Dec 16, 2020 at 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET
COVID-19 models have focused on forecasting the number of infections and death. The results vary greatly over both the course of the pandemic and among modeling groups. Even when forecasts are accurate, the models provide limited insights into the disease’s diffusion, peoples’ risks, and the impact of behavior and potential actional planning for the individual patient. Physicians’ decisions when treating the disease exemplify the complexities that decision-makers face. Physicians must consider multiple presentations of COVID-19 infection, including new mutations, comorbidities (other diseases), and attributes (weight, smoker or not, lifestyle, etc.). Symptoms are multi-faceted and evolve along barely known trajectories that may differ significantly among patient populations. A physician begins by seeing only one point from this trajectory of a patient’s journey, and all subsequent data continue to be “corrupted” by treatment decisions. This situation exemplifies many real-world decisions. By studying policies and the bases for managing COVID-19 patients, we can learn about decision making in complex systems. I have been involved in the frontlines of treatment and policy-making for COVID-19. In this presentation, I will describe some of my experiences and the lessons learned about modeling and the systems we have constructed to deal with real-world complexity.
Michael N. Liebman, Ph.D is the Managing Director of IPQ Analytics, LLC and CSO of United Cancer Centers after serving as the Executive Director of the Chan Soon-Shiong Institute for Molecular Medicine). He is an Adjunct Professor of Pharmacology and Physiology at Drexel College of Medicine. He served as Global Head of Computational Genomics, Roche Pharmaceuticals. He is a co-founder of Prosanos, Inc. He serves on the Board of Directors of the Nathaniel Adamczyk Foundation in Pediatric ARDS. Michael is Chair of Translational Medicine for the PhRMA Foundation and on the HIMSS Innovation Board. His research focuses on computational models of disease progression that stress risk detection, disease processes and clinical pathway modeling, and disease stratification from the clinical perspective. He utilizes systems-based approaches and design thinking to represent and analyze risk/benefit analysis in pharmaceutical development and healthcare.
Gary Summers is president of Pipeline Physics LLC, a boutique research center and consultancy that studies how uncertainty affects decisions and business processes. His business simulations, which study how people and teams make risky decisions, received U.S. patents 6,236,955; 6,408,263; and 7,349,838. Dr. Summers earned an M.S. and Ph.D. in Management Science from Northwestern University, performed a post-doctoral fellowship at Oregon Graduate Institute (Oregon Health Science University), and was a visiting research professor at Portland State University.