Events
A Simplified Method for Value of Information using Constructed Scales | Michael Runge, USGS
Speaker: Michael Runge (U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center)
Moderator: Laura Brandt, Ph.D., Regional Scientist, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, University of Florida, Davie, FL
Abstract:
The value of information is a central concept in decision analysis, used to quantify how much the expected outcome of a decision would be improved if epistemic uncertainty could be resolved prior to committing to a course of action. One of the challenges, however, in quantitative analysis of the value of information is that the calculations are demanding, especially in requiring predictions of outcomes as a function of alternative actions and sources of uncertainty. But the concept of value of information is important in early framing of some decisions, before such predictive tools are available. In this presentation, I will describe a constructed measure of the value of information (CVOI), grounded in the algebra of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), but requiring less of experts and analysts. The CVOI calculation decomposes EVPI into a contribution representing the relevance of the uncertainty to the decision and a contribution representing the magnitude of uncertainty; constructed scales are then proposed for each contribution. I will show some examples of the use of CVOI in natural resource management, discuss some of the subtleties of implementation, and close with some open questions.
Right after the webinar, we will have a Meet the Speaker Session exclusively for Members of the Society of Decision Professionals.
Engage directly with Michael.
Network and Meet fellow members and experts in the field in a lively discussion.
Ask Questions: Pose your questions directly to our speaker.
Share Insights: Offer your perspectives and experiences related to the “A Simplified Method for Value of Information using Constructed Scales”.
Your voice and input are valuable to us, and this Meet the Speaker Session aims to foster a collaborative environment where ideas can be exchanged, and new connections can be made.
Date: October 16, 2024
Time: 9:00am - 9:30am PT (Immediately following the webinar)
Register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0pfuCrrjgrE90_arLLJ4CnC0hH93cESjRf#/registration
Please Note: This session is exclusive to SDP Members. Membership will be verified ahead of time.
Moderator: Laura Brandt, Ph.D., Regional Scientist, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, University of Florida, Davie, FL
Abstract:
The value of information is a central concept in decision analysis, used to quantify how much the expected outcome of a decision would be improved if epistemic uncertainty could be resolved prior to committing to a course of action. One of the challenges, however, in quantitative analysis of the value of information is that the calculations are demanding, especially in requiring predictions of outcomes as a function of alternative actions and sources of uncertainty. But the concept of value of information is important in early framing of some decisions, before such predictive tools are available. In this presentation, I will describe a constructed measure of the value of information (CVOI), grounded in the algebra of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), but requiring less of experts and analysts. The CVOI calculation decomposes EVPI into a contribution representing the relevance of the uncertainty to the decision and a contribution representing the magnitude of uncertainty; constructed scales are then proposed for each contribution. I will show some examples of the use of CVOI in natural resource management, discuss some of the subtleties of implementation, and close with some open questions.
Right after the webinar, we will have a Meet the Speaker Session exclusively for Members of the Society of Decision Professionals.
Engage directly with Michael.
Network and Meet fellow members and experts in the field in a lively discussion.
Ask Questions: Pose your questions directly to our speaker.
Share Insights: Offer your perspectives and experiences related to the “A Simplified Method for Value of Information using Constructed Scales”.
Your voice and input are valuable to us, and this Meet the Speaker Session aims to foster a collaborative environment where ideas can be exchanged, and new connections can be made.
Date: October 16, 2024
Time: 9:00am - 9:30am PT (Immediately following the webinar)
Register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0pfuCrrjgrE90_arLLJ4CnC0hH93cESjRf#/registration
Please Note: This session is exclusive to SDP Members. Membership will be verified ahead of time.
Add this event to your calendar
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Location
Zoom Webinar
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Dates
Oct 16, 2024
08:00 AM - 09:00 AM |
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Contact
Hilda Cherekdjian
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Respondent Email
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Speaker
Michael C. Runge, Senior Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Michael C. Runge is a senior scientist and research ecologist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Eastern Ecological Science Center at the Patuxent Research Refuge. He earned a Ph.D. in wildlife science in 1999 from Cornell University. His research focuses on the use of decision theory, quantitative analysis, predictive modeling, and optimization to inform wildlife, natural resource, and public health management. He has worked on projects with migratory birds, National Wildlife Refuges, endangered species, marine mammals, and SARS-CoV-2. With a handful of colleagues, he co-designed the decision science curriculum for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s National Conservation Training Center.
Moderator Laura Brandt, Ph.D., Regional Scientist, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, University of Florida, Davie, FL Laura is a Wildlife Biologist with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service based in South Florida. She is responsible for working with scientists and managers to facilitate getting ecological information into the decision-making process with a focus on Everglades Restoration. She holds a BS in biology with a minor in marine science from The Pennsylvania State University a MS in biological sciences from Florida International University and a PhD in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation from University of Florida. She is a graduate at the Expert level from the National Conservation Training Center Decision Analysis Certification Program.
