Nov 18, 2020
09:00 AM - 10:00 AM
Nudging Yourself to Make Smarter Business and Personal Decisions
SDP Free Webinar:
Speaker: Ralph L. Keeney, Private Consultant, Prof. Emeritus, Duke & USC Universities.
Moderator: Gilberto Montibeller, Professor, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, UK.
Nov 18, 2020 at 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET
Decision making should be considered a primary skill, because the only way you can purposefully improve anything in your life is through the decisions you make. Everything else just happens beyond your control, due to others’ decisions and happenstance. Your decisions empower you to enhance the quality of your life and to make contributions at work in businesses, organizations, and government. Thus, your decision-making skills are crucial.
This presentation describes and illustrates concepts and procedures to enhance the key skills necessary to make smart decisions and avoid the ever-present decision traps that degrade our choices. These skills concern defining the decision that you want to face, understanding what you hope to achieve by making that decision, creating alternatives better than those readily available, and proactively identifying decision opportunities that offer significant benefits. Each of the concepts are practical to use and rely only on common sense and focused effort. Improving these skills will help you obtain the ultimate business advantage: making smarter decisions.
Dec 16, 2020
08:00 AM - 09:00 AM
Decision Making in COVID-19: It’s Personal
SDP Free Webinar
Presenter: Michael N. Liebman, Managing Director, IPQ Analytics LLC, and Adj. Professor, Drexel College of Medicine.
Moderator: Gary Summers, President, Pipeline Physics LLC.
Dec 16, 2020 at 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET
COVID-19 models have focused on forecasting the number of infections and death. The results vary greatly over both the course of the pandemic and among modeling groups. Even when forecasts are accurate, the models provide limited insights into the disease’s diffusion, peoples’ risks, and the impact of behavior and potential actional planning for the individual patient. Physicians’ decisions when treating the disease exemplify the complexities that decision-makers face. Physicians must consider multiple presentations of COVID-19 infection, including new mutations, comorbidities (other diseases), and attributes (weight, smoker or not, lifestyle, etc.). Symptoms are multi-faceted and evolve along barely known trajectories that may differ significantly among patient populations. A physician begins by seeing only one point from this trajectory of a patient’s journey, and all subsequent data continue to be “corrupted” by treatment decisions. This situation exemplifies many real-world decisions. By studying policies and the bases for managing COVID-19 patients, we can learn about decision making in complex systems. I have been involved in the frontlines of treatment and policy-making for COVID-19. In this presentation, I will describe some of my experiences and the lessons learned about modeling and the systems we have constructed to deal with real-world complexity.