Events
The Multivariate Metalog Distributions: An Introduction With Application to Strategic Decision-Making in Golf
SDP Free Webinar - Co-Sponsored with the Decision Analysis Society (DAS)
Speaker: Tom Keelin, Keelin Reeds Partners
Moderator: Jay Andersen, Oaken Table Consulting
Continuous multivariate probability distributions are highly relevant to many important decisions,
such as how to best allocate resources across a portfolio of correlated financial or R&D assets; which of multiple oil fields to develop; and choice of aim point in sports, military, or space-exploration applications. Traditionally, however, many of us have avoided such distributions because they have been impractical to parameterize, validate, and/or simulate. Here we introduce new practical methods and apply them in a new application area: strategic decision-making in golf.
Because of their desirable properties, quantile-parameterized distributions (QPDs), which include the metalogs, are being used increasingly instead of traditional distributions (normal, student-t, beta, etc.) for practical applications of probability. Application areas include not only decision analysis but diverse fields ranging from environmental conservation to astrophysics.
The metalog distributions and other QPDs give rise to improved multivariate methods -- enabling such distributions to be more accurately specified, easier to elicit, easier to determine from data, easier to validate, and easier to simulate. We illustrate these features with an easy-to-understand practical application: in golf, choosing the best aimpoint can make the difference between winning and losing.
Speaker: Tom Keelin, Keelin Reeds Partners
Moderator: Jay Andersen, Oaken Table Consulting
Continuous multivariate probability distributions are highly relevant to many important decisions,
such as how to best allocate resources across a portfolio of correlated financial or R&D assets; which of multiple oil fields to develop; and choice of aim point in sports, military, or space-exploration applications. Traditionally, however, many of us have avoided such distributions because they have been impractical to parameterize, validate, and/or simulate. Here we introduce new practical methods and apply them in a new application area: strategic decision-making in golf.
Because of their desirable properties, quantile-parameterized distributions (QPDs), which include the metalogs, are being used increasingly instead of traditional distributions (normal, student-t, beta, etc.) for practical applications of probability. Application areas include not only decision analysis but diverse fields ranging from environmental conservation to astrophysics.
The metalog distributions and other QPDs give rise to improved multivariate methods -- enabling such distributions to be more accurately specified, easier to elicit, easier to determine from data, easier to validate, and easier to simulate. We illustrate these features with an easy-to-understand practical application: in golf, choosing the best aimpoint can make the difference between winning and losing.
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Location
Zoom Webinar
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Dates
May 17, 2023
08:00 AM - 09:00 AM |
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Contact
Hilda Cherekdjian
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Respondent Email
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Speaker
Tom Keelin, Managing Partner, Keelin Reeds Partners
Tom Keelin is a founder and Managing Partner of Keelin Reeds Partners, a firm that provides strategy, decision analysis, and education services. Previously, over two decades with the Strategic Decisions Group (SDG), Tom co-developed the definition of "decision quality”, led dozens of strategy engagements for leading companies, founded SDG’s life sciences practice, and served as Board Member and Worldwide Managing Director. Later, Tom invented the metalog distributions. Tom is a Fellow and Board Member of the Society of Decision Professionals and a founder and Director of the Decision Education Foundation. He holds three Stanford degrees: BS in Economics and MS and PhD in Engineering-Economic Systems.
Tom has also been an avid amateur golfer since childhood. He was Captain of the Stanford Golf Team as an undergraduate and has maintained a longstanding interest in golf strategy.
Moderator
Jay Andersen, Owner, Oaken Table Consulting
Jay Andersen is a Fellow and a two-time Board Member of the Society of Decision Professionals. He retired as Senior Research Fellow from Eli Lilly in 2017 following a 28-year career. While at Lilly, Jay was an internal consultant to senior management on decision analysis and decision quality processes. He was instrumental in the design and application of the R&D portfolio process and was a portfolio consultant for senior management for most of his tenure at the company. Over the years, Jay has stayed active in supporting the cross-industry Decision Analysis Affinity Group conferences and has served as the conference program chair on five separate occasions.
