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DAAG 2016








Pre-Conference Workshops

Workshop 1 (morning):

Enriching Your Frame - Use of Scenario Thinking for Strategy Development

Instructors: Ellen Coopersmith and Kent Burkholder, Decision Frameworks

Abstract: Some decision problems benefit greatly from the incorporation of scenario thinking into the framing workflow. Scenario thinking is a practical, efficient approach to scenario planning involving the creation of hypothetical future business scenarios designed to raise decision maker awareness of alternative futures and prepare companies for shifts in the business environment. This workshop will introduce a merged scenario planning - decision analysis framing workflow, which was developed after many years of observation that both classic decision analysis framing and classic scenario planning can suffer from weak elements which improve immensely when the two processes are successfully merged.

Merging decision analysis (DA) framing and scenario planning provides a complimentary workflow for high level, strategic decision workshops. This is especially true when decision problems include many external, macro uncertainties, associated with socio-economic, political and or environmental issues, in which DA frames can fall short. For those problems, inserting scenario planning into the DA framing workflow provides better understanding of different possible futures and deeper insight from which to develop more robust strategies to consider. Likewise, DA framing brings needed structure to the strategy development element of the scenario planning process, which can be tortuous in many traditional instances.

Take away from the workshop:
   • Practice framing strategic decisions using scenario planning and traditional DA framing techniques.
   • Selecting the key macro uncertainties from which to base the scenarios.
   • Describing the different scenarios using questions to help develop the "worlds”.
   • Developing strategies for each future world.
   • Testing the robustness of each strategy in the other worlds

Who should attend this workshop? Those supporting strategy development in areas where there are a lot of above ground risks. Planners, decision analysts, and managers.

This workshop is limited to 30 participants.

About the Workshop Leaders
Ellen Coopersmith
Ellen Coopersmith is the founder of Decision Frameworks and a Petroleum Engineer with a degree from the Colorado School of Mines. She is based in Houston, Texas, and specializes in Decision Analysis consultation, facilitation, training, and implementation. Prior to founding Decision Frameworks in 1999, Ellen spent 16 years at Conoco, where she led their implementation of Decision Analysis in Upstream for five years. She is an accomplished technical and managerial facilitator, as well as a published and invited speaker on both the implementation and the technical elements of Decision Analysis. Ellen's passion for and focus on Decision and Risk Analysis is on skill development and on making framing, uncertainty analysis, and valuing information easy day-to-day asset management tools in our client industries.

Kent Burkholder
Kent Burkholder is a Vice President of Decision Frameworks and has been with the company since 2003. He is an advisor and consultant with broad experience in petroleum economics, decision and risk analysis framing, and economic modeling and implementation. He is highly skilled in decision facilitation and has developed and conducted many decision analysis, economic modeling, and valueof-information courses. Kent's decision analysis application experience covers a wide range of topics including exploration, appraisal, development, business strategy, refining and new technology research. His extensive industry experience in the oil and gas sector allows him to provide high level support to executives and business decision-makers. Mr. Burkholder holds a B.A.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering and is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Kent joined Decision Frameworks after six years with Petro-Canada, ten years with Merak Projects, and two years with Schlumberger. Kent's last position with Schlumberger was as Manager of Schlumberger's Oil & Gas Business Consulting group in the Middle East and Asia.

Workshop 2 (afternoon):

The Skills and Science of Facilitative Questioning

Instructors: Kathryn Rosback, KRE Inc; Tyler Ludlow, Eli Lilly and Company

Abstract: For a team faced with a need to find new solutions or one tasked with making collaborative complex decisions, a step-by-step framework or a well-structured set of templates or even the sincere desire to be collaborative is not enough. Today's leading business consultants and innovation thought leaders are calling for the need to spend more time in the questioning mode to shift unproductive patterns of thought and talk, re-frame problems, and improve innovation. But it's not just any question: it is essential that the facilitator have some skill in the art of facilitative questioning. This engaging and interactive workshop will introduce participants to the science and psychology of question types and structure, and provide opportunities to practice question application using participative case studies.

Take away from the workshop:
   • Understanding of the essential phases for effective decision making conversations.
   • Skills in structuring more effective questions, particularly those questions that are aimed at drawing out underlying values and resolving differences
   • Personal feedback on how to improve the facilitative application of questions
Who should attend this workshop?
   • Decision makers, facilitators, and/or team leads
   • Mediation/ OD consultants or leads
   • Individuals involved in conflict resolution discussions.
This workshop is limited to 30 participants.
About the Workshop Leaders
Katherine Rosback
Katherine Rosback is a specialist in the areas of group decision-making facilitation and strategy planning and implementation. Prior to her consulting work, Katherine gained an extensive background in problem-solving and decision-making skills through her work in quality engineering, project management, and as a Director of Quality. Her resume also includes five years of leading strategic planning and implementation projects while employed with an international strategic consulting firm. For the past 16 years, she has facilitated strategic planning and portfolio discussions, led highly technical best practice initiatives, and assisted in linking organizational structure and governance systems to strategy. Her Advanced Facilitation Course has been taught throughout the U.S., Canada, and Europe and in China for over 15 years and receives continual praise for one of the most insightful and useful courses ever attended. When facilitating decision-making groups, she is commended for the way she effectively guides groups through complex discussions necessary to clarify the choices and help them reach better decisions. Katherine has a B.S. in Chemical Engineering and an M.A. in Organizational Communication, both obtained through Purdue University.

Tyler Ludlow
Currently a Senior Decision Scientist at Eli Lilly in Indianapolis, Tyler Ludlow was previously part of the Decision Analysis Group at Unilever in the UK, which won the 2008 Decision Analysis Society Practice Award. In addition to his experience in decision analysis, Tyler has 15+ years of experience as corporate trainer, teambuilding consultant, and teacher. He loves facilitating groups of people and sharing his insights. Together with his wife, they are raising and learning from their nine amazing children.
Workshop 3 (full-day):

Biases in Decision Making

Instructors: Jennifer Meyer and Carl Spetzler, Strategic Decisions Group

Abstract: Humans naturally fall victim to hundreds of biases and traps, particularly in decision making. A recent explosion in behavioral decision science research has led to many new publications and popular books. This presents a challenge for the decision professional, because the field of biases is so vast and detailed, it’s nearly impossible to comprehend it. And describing the behaviors is not enough.

In this workshop, SDG will share their framework for organizing and understanding the decisionrelated biases. Through interactive discussions and live experiments, participants will learn to recognize a variety of critical decision traps, as well as the megabiases that arise from the combined effects of these biases. The workshop will also introduce an approach for avoiding these biases. Participants will share best practices, brainstorm new solutions, and develop personal strategies to create more effective prescriptive guidance for decision makers.

This program is designed for decision professionals seeking to improve the effectiveness of their decision leadership. It features highlights of the three-day biases course in the Stanford certificate program in Strategic Decision and Risk Management. It also integrates the latest thinking from the forthcoming book Decision Quality: Value Creation from Better Business Decisions (Wiley, 2016), by Carl Spetzler, Hannah Winter, and Jennifer Meyer.

About the Workshop Leaders
Jennifer Meyer
Dr. Jennifer Meyer has more than 25 years of experience as a strategy consultant, helping clients in a variety of industries with strategy development, economic evaluation, and business portfolio modeling. Her expertise is in decision situations that require both technically complex analyses and organizationally complex alignment processes, particularly in the oil & gas sector. She is a senior engagement manager with Strategic Decisions Group. Dr. Meyer also teaches courses through the Stanford Strategic Decision and Risk Management certificate program and develops customized materials and courses for clients to support their decision-related professional development needs. Dr. Meyer received a PhD and an MS in operations research from Stanford University and a BA in mathematics and physics from Drake University. She is a Fellow in the Society of Decision Professionals.

Carl S. Spetzler
For four decades, Dr. Carl Spetzler has helped top management create innovative new strategies that deal with the complexities of uncertainty and risk over long time horizons. Dr. Spetzler is chairman and CEO of Strategic Decisions Group and program director of the Stanford Strategic Decision and Risk Management certificate program. He frequently leads executive seminars and briefings and has published papers on strategic management, planning, and decision analysis. Dr. Spetzler received an MBA and a PhD in economics and business administration and BS in chemical engineering from the Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT). He serves on the boards of IIT and the Decision Education Foundation. In 2004, Dr. Spetzler received The Ramsey Medal, the highest honor awarded by the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS for lifetime contributions to the field. In 2006, he was elected to the SRI Hall of Fame for his leadership in the growth of decision analysis at SRI. He is a Fellow in the Society of Decision Professionals.

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