Workshop 1 (morning):
Enriching Your Frame - Use of Scenario Thinking for Strategy Development
Instructors: Ellen Coopersmith and Kent Burkholder, Decision Frameworks
Abstract: Some decision problems benefit greatly from the incorporation of scenario thinking into the framing workflow. Scenario thinking is a practical, efficient approach to scenario planning involving the creation of hypothetical future business scenarios designed to raise decision maker awareness of alternative futures and prepare companies for shifts in the business environment. This workshop will introduce a merged scenario planning - decision analysis framing workflow, which was developed after many years of observation that both classic decision analysis framing and classic scenario planning can suffer from weak elements which improve immensely when the two processes are successfully merged.
Merging decision analysis (DA) framing and scenario planning provides a complimentary workflow for high level, strategic decision workshops. This is especially true when decision problems include many external, macro uncertainties, associated with socio-economic, political and or environmental issues, in which DA frames can fall short. For those problems, inserting scenario planning into the DA framing workflow provides better understanding of different possible futures and deeper insight from which to develop more robust strategies to consider. Likewise, DA framing brings needed structure to the strategy development element of the scenario planning process, which can be tortuous in many traditional instances.
Take away from the workshop:
• Practice framing strategic decisions using scenario planning and traditional DA framing techniques.
• Selecting the key macro uncertainties from which to base the scenarios.
• Describing the different scenarios using questions to help develop the "worlds”.
• Developing strategies for each future world.
• Testing the robustness of each strategy in the other worlds
Who should attend this workshop? Those supporting strategy development in areas where there are a lot of above ground risks. Planners, decision analysts, and managers.
This workshop is limited to 30 participants.
About the Workshop Leaders
Ellen Coopersmith is the founder of Decision Frameworks and a Petroleum Engineer with a degree from the Colorado School of Mines. She is based in Houston, Texas, and specializes in Decision Analysis consultation, facilitation, training, and implementation. Prior to founding Decision Frameworks in 1999, Ellen spent 16 years at Conoco, where she led their implementation of Decision Analysis in Upstream for five years. She is an accomplished technical and managerial facilitator, as well as a published and invited speaker on both the implementation and the technical elements of Decision Analysis. Ellen's passion for and focus on Decision and Risk Analysis is on skill development and on making framing, uncertainty analysis, and valuing information easy day-to-day asset management tools in our client industries.
Kent Burkholder is a Vice President of Decision Frameworks and has been with the company since 2003. He is an advisor and consultant with broad experience in petroleum economics, decision and risk analysis framing, and economic modeling and implementation. He is highly skilled in decision facilitation and has developed and conducted many decision analysis, economic modeling, and valueof-information courses. Kent's decision analysis application experience covers a wide range of topics including exploration, appraisal, development, business strategy, refining and new technology research. His extensive industry experience in the oil and gas sector allows him to provide high level support to executives and business decision-makers. Mr. Burkholder holds a B.A.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering and is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Kent joined Decision Frameworks after six years with Petro-Canada, ten years with Merak Projects, and two years with Schlumberger. Kent's last position with Schlumberger was as Manager of Schlumberger's Oil & Gas Business Consulting group in the Middle East and Asia.