Presented by Jay E. Russo, Cornell University
Feb 20, 2013 (SDP Webinar - Invited Talk)
There are two broad
strategies to helping decision makers:
(a) build a model into which the decision makers insert their values and
necessary estimates and which essentially makes the decision (at least in the
sense of providing a computation-based recommendation) or
(b) accept that the decision maker is going to make the decision and try to
improve his/her actual (behavioral) process. The second approach, more like
coaching a performing athlete, characterizes this presentation. It describes a
good (behavioral) decision process as having four components: framing the
decision, gathering intelligence, coming to conclusions, and (ideally) learning
from experience (to improve the first three stages of the process). Emphasis is
placed on framing, often the most important stage of the process. Several
examples are offered of both successful and unsuccessful framing. The other
three stages are covered more briefly, for instance by considering the natural
tendency to seek confirming evidence in the stage of intelligence gathering.
The overall goal is to highlight some of the actual challenges that decision
makers face and to offer approaches to successfully dealing with them.
Click on the file below to hear a sample of the presentation.