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32. The Difficulty of Assessing Uncertainty

By E.C. Capen

Abstract: What do you do when uncertainty crosses your path? Though it seems that we have been taught how to deal with a determinate world, recent testing indicates that many have not learned to handle uncertainty successfully. This paper describes the results of that testing and suggests a better way to treat the unknown.

Introduction: The good old days were a long time ago. Now, though we must harness new technology and harsh climates to help provide needed energy supplies, we are also faced with the complex problem of satisfying not altogether consistent governments, the consumer, our banker, and someone's time schedule. Judging from the delays, massive capital overruns, and relatively low return this industry has experienced lately, it would seem that we have been missing something. At least one explanation is that we have not learned to deal with uncertainty successfully.

Citation: Capen, E.C. (1976). The Difficulty of Assessing Uncertainty. Journal of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 28, No. 8, pp. 843-850.

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