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Supporting "Scenario Driven" Business Cases at Kodak

Presenter: Gary Brauer, Kodak

Presented at the 2003 DAAG Conference in Houston, Texas.

Abstract: At Kodak, and I suspect almost everywhere, most business cases are developed with no attention given to probabilistic treatment of uncertainties and only superficial attention given to sensitivities for obvious drivers of value like price, share, etc. If that is your current state, what would you think about a future where almost all significant new initiatives requiring a business case would incorporate credible tree and sensitivity analysis for all major uncertainties?  I am currently on a crusade to make this happen at Kodak and have gained considerable success in the last 2 years.  Keys to this progress are 1) an approach and supporting Excel software that reduce the additional business case work to a negligible level beyond what would have to be done anyway. 2) developing a network with sympathetic  company leaders in commercialization, corporate strategy and finance to make this happen, 3) building a track record of success that I am always leveraging to show new users the obvious advantages to building much more credible business cases.  I’d like to share this story with you especially emphasizing what we are doing to "keep it simple”.

 

Keywords: sensitivity analysis sensanal, scenario analysis, technology, risk analysis riskanal, evaluation anamod, scenario analysis scenanal

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