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Production Forecasting: Optimistic and Overconfident – Over and Over Again

San Francisco Chapter Meeting: Speaker Reidar Bratvold, University of Stavanger
July 10, 2020

This talk discusses collaborative work done at University of Stavanger and University of Texas to compare production forecasting at the time of investment decisions versus actual production, and to asses whether the forecastsa are optimistic, overconfident, neither, or both.

Click here for access to the full video.

SDP membership is required for full access to this presentation.

Keywords: evaluation anamod, modeling modtree, uncertainty analysis uncanal, Probability assessment probass, cognitive bias cogbias, overconfident, optimistic

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