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Impact of Covid-19 Test Reliability

San Francisco Chapter Meeting: Speaker Brain Putt
April 16, 2020

Most of us are working from home trying to keep the lights on during this Covid-19 pandemic. Much has been said about confirmed cases using testing. However, there is little that is being said about the reliability of these tests – the 2-3 day tests vs the rapid test of 5 minutes to 1 hour results. What might happen?

Brian Putt shares his analysis of the impact of the test reliability. We will consider the original testing where flu tests are given first and then the Covid-19. Then we will look at different decision policies. Testing involves conditional probabilities so we will look at this from a Bayesian perspective. Participants are encouraged to share their thoughts and analysis as well.

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SDP membership is required for full access to this presentation.

Keywords: evaluation anamod, modeling modtree, uncertainty analysis uncanal, Monte Carlo simulation mcsim, voi voivoc, bayes

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