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HIV Cure Initiative: Cost-Benefit Analysis

Sandy Wrobel, Savonix
May 23, 2018 (SDP Webinar Invited Talk)

With 37 million people currently infected and 1 million deaths per year, HIV continues to be a major public health problem. At the rate of 2 million new infections per year, the total global cost of HIV is expected to rise from $22 to $32 billion annually by 2020. The current standard of care for HIV management involves the use of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs. However, access and adherence to these drugs is challenging and consequently, only 41% of those infected are currently on treatment. ARVs greatly improve the quality of life of infected people but are far from a cure. To develop a cure for HIV will require billions in R&D investment and a decade or more to reach the market. Would this investment and time prove to be beneficial or not given the current standard of care?

To provide an evidence-based case for engaging in cure efforts, the HIV Cure Initiative sponsored an analysis to estimate the incremental value of a cure compared to the current standard of care (SOC). The results of this analysis proved to be both insightful and surprising to the experts involved.

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Keywords: framing and structuring framestruc, analysis and modeling anamod, cost-benefit, alternatives generation altgen, influence diagram infldiag, decision tree dectree

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