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Eli Lilly PoS Estimation
and
Reference Class Forecasting – What BioPharma can Learn from Probabilistic Forecasts in Energy

Probability of Success User Interest Group Meeting: Speakers Jay Andersen and Charles Persinger – Eli Lilly, Reidar Bratvold - University of Stavanger
October 18, 2022

Abstract: Estimating the probability of success to guide investment decisions spans multiple industries and technologies. This is true whether a company is developing new molecular treatments for unmet medical needs, investing in renewable energy assets, or developing a next generation airliner. All of these examples involve assessing and forecasting the likelihood of success for complex technical projects with high risk of failure, large investments, and long development time-lines. Providing decision makers with actionable, predictive assessments of potential success are critical for achieving desired outcomes.

This is our first cross-industry (Biopharma/Energy/Aerospace) interest group sponsored by the Society of Decision Professionals (SDP) on Probability of Success. This multidisciplinary group will meet quarterly in a non-competitive environment to present/discuss emerging ‘best practices’ and approaches to estimate PoS for various activities.

Our first session features 3 speakers from Pharma and Energy that present their approaches to providing plausible estimates of success to guide decision-making. The presentation cuts across disciplines and illustrates the value of combining Decision Analysis, Clear Thinking, and Data Science to solve real world problems.

Click here for access to the full video.

SDP membership is required for full access to this presentation.

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty riskunc, Risk analysis riskanal, Analysis and modeling anamod, Probability assessment probass, expert interviews expint, peer, calibration

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