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Knowledge Content Library

Quantifying and Mitigating Splitting Biases in Value Trees
Presented by Sarah K. Jacobi and Benjamin F. Hobbs (Johns Hopkins University) at 2006 DAAG Conference in Baltimore. Discussion of biases due to how objectives hierarchies are set up and assessed in multi-objective problems and how splitting the trees impacts results.

Using Monte Carlo Simulations in Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis
Presented by George Huhn (Data Machines) at 2006 DAAG Conference in Baltimore. Application of Monte Carlo simulation to explore uncertainty in attribute weights and choice values.

A Multi-Objective Market Assessment Process
Presented by Steve Mack (Whitney, Bradley & Brown) at 2005 DAAG Conference in Philadelphia. Multi-objective application to a market assessment at BFGoodrich.

Organizing the Mess: Designing Decision Solutions That Matter
Presented by Steve Mack (Whitney, Bradley & Brown) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Discussion of organizationally complex decisions and the use of good framing and collaboration processes to work through the mess.

A Structured Process for Developing a Performance Confirmation Plan for the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Repository
Presented by Tim Nieman (Geomatrix Consultants) at 2003 DAAG Conference in Houston. This talk discusses the use of multi-criteria concepts to develop a portfolio of performance confirmation activities.

Multi-Criteria Tools and DA
Presented by Paul Davis (ChevronTexaco) at 2003 DAAG Conference in Houston. This talk discusses the use of multi-criteria approaches and visualization using Criterium software.

Value-Driven Portfolios
Presented by James Felli (Eli Lilly) at 2003 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discusses one method of portfolio construction that allows an organization’s goals to be mapped directly into an appropriate set of relative measures to facilitate the determination of an optimal mix of portfolio elements.

Budgets are Portfolios Too
Presented by James Mitchell (Decision Strategies) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Portfolio analysis example at TransCanada, including how to consider multiple objectives and tradeoffs.

Are you ready for the MODA of all portfolio prioritization approaches or is SODA still appropriate?
Presented by Jeff Stonebreaker (Bayer) at 2001 DAAG Conference in Houston. Multi-objective analysis applied to portfolio problems in Bayer.

Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternatives
Presented by James Felli (Naval Postgraduate School) at 2000 DAAG Conference in Calgary. Discussion of cost and effectiveness as a problem of trade-offs.

Modeling Multiple Attribute Decisions
Presented by T. Yocum (Conoco) at 1999 DAAG Conference in Orlando. Illustrates steps and issues in multiple attribute problems, with illustration to a car buying and a real project case.

Thinking of Values at Lilly
Presented by Tom Spradlin (Eli Lilly) at 1998 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Overview of strategy development at Lilly and the use of value focused thinking to inform that strategy.

Handbook of Decision Analysis
by Gregory S. Parnell, Terry A. Bresnick, Steven N. Tani, Eric R. Johnson (SDP Fellows)
Fills a gap in decision analysis literature, featuring both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling.
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Value Focused Thinking
by Ralph Keeney (SDP Fellow)
A classic in the field of Decision Analysis, and for anyone seeking to make better decisions.
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Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions
by John Hammond, Ralph Keeney (SDP Fellow), Howard Raiffa
An easy-to-read and practical guide to making better life decisions.
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Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs
by Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa
The classic text laying out the axiomatic foundations for multiattribute utility approaches.
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How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business
by Douglas W. Hubbard
This math best-seller argues that most individuals can be trained to assess calibrated probabilities and presents a procedure for evaluating quantities in a decision analytically consistent way.
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Strategic Decision Making: Multiobjective Decision Analysis with Spreadsheets
by Craig W. Kirkwood
Uses spreadsheets and other analytical tools in considering important tradeoffs in multiobjective problems.
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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
by Philip E. Tetlock
Explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
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