Knowledge Content Library
Circular Decision Trees
Presented by Robert Bordley (General Motors) at 2001 DAAG Conference in Houston. Introduces an alternative way to draw decision trees using a circular design, with guidelines on how to implement in excel.
Decision Analysis and Value Engineering
Presented by (Decision Strategies) at 2001 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of the overlap of a typical Decision Analysis (initial go/no-go) and Value Engineering (implementation) and how to achieve better synergy and value from both.
How to Do Absolutely Everything Wrong and Then Fix It
Presented at 2001 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of the evolution of Decision Analysis methods in the 1990s in an under-performing Exploration group in an oil company.
Incremental Value Assessment: A DA Based Approach
Presented by (Bell Canada) at 2001 DAAG Conference in Houston. Overview of Bell Canada's Incremental Value Analysis (IVA) Process to do rapid assessments.
Prospective Customer Application of Used Facilities
Presented by Sue Young (Conoco) at 1999 DAAG Conference in Orlando. A facilities divestiture by Conoco where the customer and Conoco agreed to cooperate using a DR&A process to ensure objectivity.
Parametric Modeling in Decision Analysis
Presented by Gerald Bush (Decision Strategies) at 1999 DAAG Conference in Orlando. Illustrates the use of parametric analysis of commodity pricing as an alternative to 10-50-90 assessments. The different perspective led to a different valuation and decision.
Presented by John Palmer (General Motors) at 1998 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Example of assessing ranges using P10, P50, P90, illustrating common biases and including suggestions for better elicitation processes.
Project Selection of an Aluminum Alloy
Presented by (General Motors) at 1998 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Describes the decision process for choosing an aluminum alloy and the key role of tornado diagrams in the analysis.
Handbook of Decision Analysis
by Gregory S. Parnell, Terry A. Bresnick, Steven N. Tani, Eric R. Johnson (SDP Fellows)
Fills a gap in decision analysis literature, featuring both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling.
Decision Analysis for the Professional
by John Celona and Peter McNamee (SDP Fellows)
You can purchase on Amazon or download a free copy of this book in PDF format by clicking below.
Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number?
by Patrick Leach (SDP Fellow)
Updated 2nd edition. An executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and to make better decisions.
Making Hard Decisions
by Robert T. Clemen (SDP Fellow) and Terence Reilly
Updated 3rd edition, with software and tutorials in Palisade's DecisionTools Suite.
Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions
by John Hammond, Ralph Keeney (SDP Fellow), Howard Raiffa
An easy-to-read and practical guide to making better life decisions.
Decision Quality: Value Creation from Better Business Decisions
by Carl Spetzler (SDP Fellow), Hannah Winter, and Jennifer Meyer (SDP Fellow)
Add value with every decision using a simple yet powerful framework
Making Good Decisions
by Reidar B. Bratvold and Steve Begg (SDP Fellows)
Best seller in the Society of Petroleum Engineers community.
The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis (the "Blue Books")
by Ronald A. Howard and James Matheson (SDP Fellows)
Classic reference, 2 volumes. The link below will take you to the Amazon link, and to a full description with links to some of the chapters.
Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
by M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion (SDP Fellow)
A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis.
Foundations of Decision Analysis
by Ali Abbas, Ron Howard
A groundbreaking text that explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings.
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
by Peter L. Bernstein
A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability.
The Signal and the Noise
by Nate Silver
Why so many predictions fail - but some don't.