Knowledge Content Library
141
Incorporating Learning Models in Structuring and Valuing R&D Projects
Presented by Phil Beccue (Baxter) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Real options example using decision trees for evaluation of "learning models".
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142
Back of the Envelope Analysis
Presented by Harry Eckerson and David Swank (GlaxoSmithKline) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Example of how to do a quick analysis when time is insufficient for more detailed work, using sensitivity and what-if analyses.
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144
Convince Me Your Complex Analysis is Correct
Presented by Gary Hagstrom (Chevron) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Questions to ask to identify whether a decision analysis has been done well, and the interaction between analytical quality and salesmanship.
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145
Decision Analysis to Evaluate Clinical Proof-of-Principle Trial Design for a New Drug
Presented by Vish Viswanathan and Rick Bayney (Johnson & Johnson) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Example of value of information approach to evaluation of a trial design decision.
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149
A Quick Decision Analysis Process for Selected Environmental Management Decisions
Presented by Karen Streich (Chevron) and James Mitchell (Decision Strategies) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Example of process and tools used to perform quick analyses of environmental problems.
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150
Strategy Evaluation for a Pharmaceutical Oncology Asset
Presented by Erik C. Johnson (BristolMyersSquibb) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Case study of decision analysis of oncology drug development, and the unique characteristics of evaluating these types of drugs.
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140
Supporting Scenario Driven Business Cases at Kodak
Presented by Gary Brauer (Kodak) at 2003 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of how to build business cases through use of scenarios, including risk analysis and supporting software.
113
Patterns in Pharma DA - An Example from Abbott Labs
Presented by Steven Kuemmerle (Abbott Labs) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Discussion of DA processes and value drives at Abbott Labs.
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116
Discounting Effectiveness
Presented by James Felli and Kent Wall (Naval Postgraduate School) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Examples of using discounting and tradeoffs for a class of decision problems with multiyear profiles, importance of timeliness, and changing effectiveness.
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119
I'd Rather Be Lucky Than Good
Presented by Pat Leach (Decision Strategies) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Simplified model example to show the role of luck in being promoted to management based on outcomes.
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121
Mergers, Acquisitions and Licensing
Presented by Bill Haskett (Decision Strategies) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Discussion of formulating negotiation strategies with approaches that balance value maximization with protection of downside risk.
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122
2-Dimensional Policy Sensitivity Diagrams Convey Concise Insights
Presented by Phil Beccue (Amgen) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Examples of how to plot 2-way sensitivity analysis to reveal optimal policy choices under different assumptions.
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123
Javelin Diagrams
Presented by James Felli (Defense Resources Management Institute) and Gordon Hazen (Northwestern University) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Innovative way to combine tornado diagrams and distributions into "javelin" diagrams.
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124
Nova Chemicals Business Case Development Financial Model
Presented by R. Marti (Nova Chemicals) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Example of business case tool with elements for financial modeling, simulation for including uncertainties, strategy development, risk factors, and implementation.
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125
Using Preference Probabilities as a Surrogate for Market Forecasts
Presented by D. Johnson (Eli Lilly) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Innovative way to use preference probabilities to make market forecasts where doing so directly would be a daunting task.
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126
The Hidden Quality Process
Presented by B. Kitchell (Conoco) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Discussion of Conoco's decision process and how it delivers information to decision makers when they need it.
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127
Expected Internal Rate of Return as a Prioritization Metric
Presented by J. Mauer (BristolMyersSquibb) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Discussion of the use of expected IRR as an addition to other financial metrics (e.g., eNPV).
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96
Circular Decision Trees
Presented by Robert Bordley (General Motors) at 2001 DAAG Conference in Houston. Introduces an alternative way to draw decision trees using a circular design, with guidelines on how to implement in excel.
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97
Decision Analysis and Value Engineering
Presented by (Decision Strategies) at 2001 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of the overlap of a typical Decision Analysis (initial go/no-go) and Value Engineering (implementation) and how to achieve better synergy and value from both.
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100
How to Do Absolutely Everything Wrong and Then Fix It
Presented at 2001 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of the evolution of Decision Analysis methods in the 1990s in an under-performing Exploration group in an oil company.
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