Knowledge Content Library
How to win friends and influence deal terms
Presented by Ajoy Chakrabarti (BristolMyersSquibb) at 2005 DAAG Conference in Philadelphia. Discussion of licensing problem for an oncology drug.
Modeling the global latent therapeutic demand for hemophilia A
Presented by Jeff Stonebreaker (GlaxoSmithKline) and Donald Keefer (Arizona State University) at 2005 DAAG Conference in Philadelphia. Shows model based on probability-encoding principles and discrete approximation techniques to estimate global latent therapeutic demand for hemophilia A using population-based epidemiology and treatment modalities.
Texas Hold ‘Em (DA Approaches to IT)
Presented by Jim Weller (Chevron) and Jerry Lieberman (Decision Strategies) at 2005 DAAG Conference in Philadelphia. Discussion of ways to value IT investments in an organization.
Incorporating Learning Models in Structuring and Valuing R&D Projects
Presented by Phil Beccue (Baxter) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Real options example using decision trees for evaluation of "learning models".
Back of the Envelope Analysis
Presented by Harry Eckerson and David Swank (GlaxoSmithKline) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Example of how to do a quick analysis when time is insufficient for more detailed work, using sensitivity and what-if analyses.
Convince Me Your Complex Analysis is Correct
Presented by Gary Hagstrom (Chevron) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Questions to ask to identify whether a decision analysis has been done well, and the interaction between analytical quality and salesmanship.
Decision Analysis to Evaluate Clinical Proof-of-Principle Trial Design for a New Drug
Presented by Vish Viswanathan and Rick Bayney (Johnson & Johnson) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Example of value of information approach to evaluation of a trial design decision.
A Quick Decision Analysis Process for Selected Environmental Management Decisions
Presented by Karen Streich (Chevron) and James Mitchell (Decision Strategies) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Example of process and tools used to perform quick analyses of environmental problems.
Strategy Evaluation for a Pharmaceutical Oncology Asset
Presented by Erik C. Johnson (BristolMyersSquibb) at 2004 DAAG Conference in San Francisco. Case study of decision analysis of oncology drug development, and the unique characteristics of evaluating these types of drugs.
Supporting Scenario Driven Business Cases at Kodak
Presented by Gary Brauer (Kodak) at 2003 DAAG Conference in Houston. Discussion of how to build business cases through use of scenarios, including risk analysis and supporting software.
Patterns in Pharma DA - An Example from Abbott Labs
Presented by Steven Kuemmerle (Abbott Labs) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Discussion of DA processes and value drives at Abbott Labs.
Presented by James Felli and Kent Wall (Naval Postgraduate School) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Examples of using discounting and tradeoffs for a class of decision problems with multiyear profiles, importance of timeliness, and changing effectiveness.
I'd Rather Be Lucky Than Good
Presented by Pat Leach (Decision Strategies) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Simplified model example to show the role of luck in being promoted to management based on outcomes.
Mergers, Acquisitions and Licensing
Presented by Bill Haskett (Decision Strategies) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Discussion of formulating negotiation strategies with approaches that balance value maximization with protection of downside risk.
2-Dimensional Policy Sensitivity Diagrams Convey Concise Insights
Presented by Phil Beccue (Amgen) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Examples of how to plot 2-way sensitivity analysis to reveal optimal policy choices under different assumptions.
Presented by James Felli (Defense Resources Management Institute) and Gordon Hazen (Northwestern University) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Innovative way to combine tornado diagrams and distributions into "javelin" diagrams.
Nova Chemicals Business Case Development Financial Model
Presented by R. Marti (Nova Chemicals) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Example of business case tool with elements for financial modeling, simulation for including uncertainties, strategy development, risk factors, and implementation.
Using Preference Probabilities as a Surrogate for Market Forecasts
Presented by D. Johnson (Eli Lilly) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Innovative way to use preference probabilities to make market forecasts where doing so directly would be a daunting task.
The Hidden Quality Process
Presented by B. Kitchell (Conoco) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Discussion of Conoco's decision process and how it delivers information to decision makers when they need it.
Expected Internal Rate of Return as a Prioritization Metric
Presented by J. Mauer (BristolMyersSquibb) at 2002 DAAG Conference in Las Vegas. Discussion of the use of expected IRR as an addition to other financial metrics (e.g., eNPV).