Knowledge Content Library
Nassim Taleb’s Black Swan and Decision Analysis
Presented by Jack Kloeber (Kromite) at 2010 DAAG Conference in Orlando. Discussion of Black Swan phenomena and how to incorporate into Decision Analysis.
Quantifying and Mitigating Splitting Biases in Value Trees
Presented by Sarah K. Jacobi and Benjamin F. Hobbs (Johns Hopkins University) at 2006 DAAG Conference in Baltimore. Discussion of biases due to how objectives hierarchies are set up and assessed in multi-objective problems and how splitting the trees impacts results.
Should You Trust Your Gut? Psychological weaknesses in human beings when we try to make decisions in the face of uncertainty
Presented by Pat Leach (Decision Strategies) at 2006 DAAG Conference in Baltimore. Discussion of some common biases and how to use your intellect and gut to sort it out.
Historic Studies on the Psychology of Decision Making
Presented by Jessica Hayden (Centacor) and Harry Eckerson (Decision Strategies) at 2005 DAAG Conference in Philadelphia. Discussion of many of the common biases that occur in decision making.
Partition Dependence and Subjective Probabilities: Problem and Solution
Presented by Bob Clemen (Duke University) with Craig Fox and Canan Ulu at 2005 DAAG Conference in Philadelphia. Discusses various cognitive biases and innovative ways to minimize their occurrence and impacts.
Handbook of Decision Analysis
by Gregory S. Parnell, Terry A. Bresnick, Steven N. Tani, Eric R. Johnson (SDP Fellows)
Fills a gap in decision analysis literature, featuring both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling.
Value Focused Thinking
by Ralph Keeney (SDP Fellow)
A classic in the field of Decision Analysis, and for anyone seeking to make better decisions.
Making Hard Decisions
by Robert T. Clemen (SDP Fellow) and Terence Reilly
Updated 3rd edition, with software and tutorials in Palisade's DecisionTools Suite.
The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis (the "Blue Books")
by Ronald A. Howard and James Matheson (SDP Fellows)
Classic reference, 2 volumes. The link below will take you to the Amazon link, and to a full description with links to some of the chapters.
Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
by M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion (SDP Fellow)
A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
by Daniel Kahneman
A must read for decision professionals
Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them
by J. Edward Russo and Paul Schoemaker
Barriers to making good decisions and guidance on how to overcome them.
The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty
by Sam L. Savage
Describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty.
The Signal and the Noise
by Nate Silver
Why so many predictions fail - but some don't.
Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work
by Chip Heath and Dan Heath
Chip Heath takes off from where Daniel Kahneman left off in Thinking Fast and Slow and offers solutions to work with our biases and not let them misguide us.
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky
A collection of classic articles on this important subject.
Choices, Values, and Frames
by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
Choices, Values, and Frames presents an empirical and theoretical challenge to classical utility theory, offering prospect theory as an alternative framework.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
With a new section: On Robustness and Fragility.
Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
by Robert. B. Cialdini
Influence, the classic book on persuasion, explains the psychology of why people say "yes"—and how to apply these understandings.
Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein
A revelatory new look at how we make decisions.