The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis
This collection was published in 1983 and has since been known as the blue books, after the blue front cover. We have tried to place online all of the content that we have copyright permission to reproduce. If you are an author listed in this collection and have the copyright to your paper, please contact Hilda at decision professionals.com to give us permission to include the digital version on our site.
The full collection can also be purchased on Amazon. The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis : 2 Volume SetClick to View on Amazon
Contents
VOLUME I: GENERAL COLLECTION
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
1. The Evolution of Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard
2. An Introduction to Decision Analysis - J. E. Matheson and R. A. Howard
3. Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering - R. A. Howard
4. Decision Analysis: Applied Decision Theory - R. A. Howard
5. A Tutorial introduction to Decision Theory - D. W. North
6. A Tutorial in Decision Analysis - C. S. Staƫl von Holstein
7. The Science of Decision-Making - R. A. Howard
8. An Assessment of Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard
APPLICATIONS
Preface
Investment and Strategic Planning
9. Decision Analysis Practice: Examples and Insights - J. E. Matheson
10. Decision Analysis of a Facilities Investment and Expansion Problem - C S. Spetzler and R. M. Zamora
11. Strategic Planning in an Age of Uncertainty - M. M. Menke
12. A Decision Analysis of a Petrochemical Expansion Study - T.J. Braunstein
13. The Dangerous Quest for Certainty in Market Forecasting - R. Abt, M. Borja, M. M. Menke, and J. P. Pezier
14. An inside View: Analyzing investment Strategies - R. F. Egger and M. M. Menke
15. Managing the Corporate Business Portfolio - J. E. Matheson
Research and Development
16. Overview of R&D Decision Analysis - J. E. Matheson
17. Using Decision Analysis to Determine R&D's Value - M. M. Menke
Article from Inside R&D
18. Selecting Projects to Obtain a Balanced Research Portfolio - D. L Owen
19. Calling the Shots in R&D - H. U. Balthasar, R. A. A. Boschi, and M. M. Menke
20. Quantifying and Forecasting Exploratory Research Success - R. A. A. Boschi, H. U. Balthasar, and M. M. Menke
21. Evaluating Basic Research Strategies - M. M. Menke, J. Celzer, and J. P. Pezier
Social Policy
22. Social Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard
23. The Decision to Seed Hurricanes - R. A. Howard, J. E. Matheson, and D. W. North
24. Decision Analysis of the Synthetic Fuels Commercialization Program - S. N. Tani
25. Decision Analysis of Space Projects: Voyager Mars - J. E. Matheson and W. J. Roths
VOLUME II: PROFESSIONAL COLLECTION
HEALTH AND SAFETY
Preface
26. On Making Life and Death Decisions - R. A. Howard
27. The Value of Life and Nuclear Design - D. L Owen, J. £ Matheson, and R. A. Howard
28. The Design of Hazardous Products - D. L Owen
29. On Being Environmentally Decisive - P. A. Owen and S. B. Engle
30. On Fates Comparable to Death - R. A. Howard
PROFESSIONAL PRACTICE
Preface
31. The Foundations of Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard
32. The Difficulty of Assessing Uncertainty - E. C. Capen
33. Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis - C. S. Spetzler and C. 5. Stael von Holstein
34. Risk Preference - R. A. Howard
35. The Development of a Corporate Risk Policy for Capital Investment Decisions - C. S. Spetzler
36. The Used Car Buyer - R. A. Howard
37. Influence Diagrams - R. A. Howard and J. E. Matheson
38. The Use of Influence Diagrams in Structuring Complex Decision Problems - D. L Owen
TECHNICAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Preface
39. Information Value Theory - R. A. Howard
40. Value of Information Lotteries - R. A. Howard
41. The Economic Value of Analysis and Computation - J. E. Matheson
42. Competitive Bidding in High-Risk Situations - E. C. Capen, R. V. Clapp, and W. M. Campbell
43. Decision Analysis: Perspectives on Inference, Decision, and Experimentation - R. A. Howard
44. Bayesian Decision Models for Systems Engineering - R. A. Howard
45. Proximal Decision Analysis - R. A. Howard
46. Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes - R. A. Howard
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM PSYCHOLOGY
Preface
47. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases - A. Tversky and D. Kahneman
48. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk - D. Kahneman and A. Tversky
49. The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice - A. Tversky and D. Kahneman
List of Theses in Decision Analysis at Stanford University