Events
Creating Value from Uncertainty and Flexibility
SDP Free Webinar
17 Jan, 2018 | 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET
Speaker: Reidar Bratvold, University of Stavanger
Moderator: Pat Leach, Independent Strategic Consultant
Abstract:
Although an increasing number of companies use decision & risk management methods to deal with complex and uncertain decisions, they still get consistent under-performance in typical business metrics leading to less value than expected, or, more perniciously, than possible.
Uncertainty per se is not the culprit, rather a failure to make the best decisions under uncertainty – which are often non-intuitive. The real value-destroyers are biases and failing to plan for, and exploit, the different ways reality might evolve - if you under-estimate uncertainty, you are likely to under-invest in managing its consequences. Making the best decisions requires an accurate assessment of uncertainty (unbiased, neither optimistic nor pessimistic) – and an unbiased approach to managing its consequences – putting as much effort on capturing upside opportunities as mitigating risks.
In contrast to the approaches that focus on risk management, the approach discussed in this webinar brings an optimistic view to uncertainty. While there is no doubt that uncertainty can create losses, uncertainty can also be exploited by augmenting the upside and reducing the downside risks inherent in investments.
17 Jan, 2018 | 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET
Speaker: Reidar Bratvold, University of Stavanger
Moderator: Pat Leach, Independent Strategic Consultant
Abstract:
Although an increasing number of companies use decision & risk management methods to deal with complex and uncertain decisions, they still get consistent under-performance in typical business metrics leading to less value than expected, or, more perniciously, than possible.
Uncertainty per se is not the culprit, rather a failure to make the best decisions under uncertainty – which are often non-intuitive. The real value-destroyers are biases and failing to plan for, and exploit, the different ways reality might evolve - if you under-estimate uncertainty, you are likely to under-invest in managing its consequences. Making the best decisions requires an accurate assessment of uncertainty (unbiased, neither optimistic nor pessimistic) – and an unbiased approach to managing its consequences – putting as much effort on capturing upside opportunities as mitigating risks.
In contrast to the approaches that focus on risk management, the approach discussed in this webinar brings an optimistic view to uncertainty. While there is no doubt that uncertainty can create losses, uncertainty can also be exploited by augmenting the upside and reducing the downside risks inherent in investments.
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Location
GoToWebinar
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Dates
Jan 17, 2018
08:00 AM - 09:00 AM |
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Contact
Hilda Cherekdjian
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Respondent Email
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Speaker
Reidar Bratvold, University of Stanvanger
Reidar’s work background spans from working as a roughneck on drilling platforms in the North Sea to being the vice president in charge of Landmark Graphics Corporation’s (a Halliburton company) solutions in business management, reservoir, production, and drilling engineering. He held several executive roles where he initiated and implemented decision analysis processes. Reidar has completed the Stanford/SDG decision and risk analysis certificate program. He is currently a professor of investment and decision analysis at the University of Stavanger, Norway.
In addition to teaching DA to graduate students, Reidar has trained close to 1,000 oil & gas professionals in decision analysis, portfolio analysis, economics, and real option valuation. He has worked a number of industry projects for a wide variety of clients, ranging from implementation of portfolio analysis and management procedures in small privately held companies to multi-billion dollar investments for public corporations and governments.
Reidar has authored or co-authored a large number of journal papers as well as the book Making Good Decisions – a primer for the oil & gas industry. He has presented and been a session manager at INFORMS conferences. He is the recipient of the 2017 Society of Petroleum Engineers Management & Information Award, is a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals and a member of the Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences.
Reidar holds a PhD and MSc from Stanford University, an MSc from the University of Tulsa and a BSc from the University of Stavanger.
Moderator
Pat Leach, Independent Strategic Consultant
